Persistent rain and northeasterly winds from an approaching weather system are suppressing maximum temperatures in Tokyo, positioning the 24°C outcome as the market leader at 43% implied probability. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus forecast a high near 24°C under overcast skies with 80-90% precipitation chances, consistent with recent observations of 22-26°C on September 19. This setup deviates modestly below September climatological norms around 26-27°C, with limited diurnal heating from heavy cloud cover and moisture. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of 23-25°C forecasts heavily while acknowledging typical short-range model variability in rain timing and intensity that could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings ahead of resolution will likely refine these odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 20 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 20 de septiembre?
24°C 43%
23°C 32%
25°C 18%
22°C 6%
NUEVO
$12,862 Vol.
NUEVO
$12,862 Vol.
20 sep 2026
19°C o menos
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
6%
23°C
32%
24°C
43%
25°C
18%
26°C
4%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C o más
<1%
24°C 43%
23°C 32%
25°C 18%
22°C 6%
NUEVO
$12,862 Vol.
NUEVO
$12,862 Vol.
20 sep 2026
19°C o menos
$1,854 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$997 Vol.
1%
21°C
$722 Vol.
3%
22°C
$626 Vol.
6%
23°C
$3,824 Vol.
32%
24°C
$1,743 Vol.
43%
25°C
$1,199 Vol.
18%
26°C
$706 Vol.
4%
27°C
$470 Vol.
1%
28°C
$596 Vol.
<1%
29°C o más
$126 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northeasterly winds from an approaching weather system are suppressing maximum temperatures in Tokyo, positioning the 24°C outcome as the market leader at 43% implied probability. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus forecast a high near 24°C under overcast skies with 80-90% precipitation chances, consistent with recent observations of 22-26°C on September 19. This setup deviates modestly below September climatological norms around 26-27°C, with limited diurnal heating from heavy cloud cover and moisture. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of 23-25°C forecasts heavily while acknowledging typical short-range model variability in rain timing and intensity that could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings ahead of resolution will likely refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$12,862Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northeasterly winds from an approaching weather system are suppressing maximum temperatures in Tokyo, positioning the 24°C outcome as the market leader at 43% implied probability. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus forecast a high near 24°C under overcast skies with 80-90% precipitation chances, consistent with recent observations of 22-26°C on September 19. This setup deviates modestly below September climatological norms around 26-27°C, with limited diurnal heating from heavy cloud cover and moisture. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of 23-25°C forecasts heavily while acknowledging typical short-range model variability in rain timing and intensity that could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings ahead of resolution will likely refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$12,862Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and northeasterly winds from an approaching weather system are suppressing maximum temperatures in Tokyo, positioning the 24°C outcome as the market leader at 43% implied probability. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus forecast a high near 24°C under overcast skies with 80-90% precipitation chances, consistent with recent observations of 22-26°C on September 19. This setup deviates modestly below September climatological norms around 26-27°C, with limited diurnal heating from heavy cloud cover and moisture. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of 23-25°C forecasts heavily while acknowledging typical short-range model variability in rain timing and intensity that could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings ahead of resolution will likely refine these odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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