PAGASA's latest outlook for Metro Manila on September 21 points to a 25–31°C range under southwest monsoon influence, with 40% rain chance from isolated thunderstorms, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 32°C (38% implied probability) and 33°C (31.5%). Persistent cloud cover and high humidity typical of the peak rainy season often cap afternoon peaks near or slightly above seasonal averages of 31–32°C, while variable steering winds and brief clearing could allow brief heating to 33°C or higher in some model runs. Historical September extremes rarely exceed 34°C without stronger subsidence or reduced convection, supporting the lower odds on 34°C (14.5%) and above. Updated PAGASA and global model guidance ahead of the observation window will likely drive any shifts in trader positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Manila el 21 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Manila el 21 de septiembre?
32°C 38%
33°C 31%
31°C 19%
34°C 15%
NUEVO
$15,147 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,147 Vol.
21 sep 2026
28°C o menos
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
19%
32°C
38%
33°C
31%
34°C
15%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C o más
<1%
32°C 38%
33°C 31%
31°C 19%
34°C 15%
NUEVO
$15,147 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,147 Vol.
21 sep 2026
28°C o menos
$419 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$386 Vol.
1%
30°C
$620 Vol.
4%
31°C
$4,538 Vol.
19%
32°C
$3,016 Vol.
38%
33°C
$3,963 Vol.
31%
34°C
$1,819 Vol.
15%
35°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$53 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
38°C o más
$4 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA's latest outlook for Metro Manila on September 21 points to a 25–31°C range under southwest monsoon influence, with 40% rain chance from isolated thunderstorms, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 32°C (38% implied probability) and 33°C (31.5%). Persistent cloud cover and high humidity typical of the peak rainy season often cap afternoon peaks near or slightly above seasonal averages of 31–32°C, while variable steering winds and brief clearing could allow brief heating to 33°C or higher in some model runs. Historical September extremes rarely exceed 34°C without stronger subsidence or reduced convection, supporting the lower odds on 34°C (14.5%) and above. Updated PAGASA and global model guidance ahead of the observation window will likely drive any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volumen
$15,147Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA's latest outlook for Metro Manila on September 21 points to a 25–31°C range under southwest monsoon influence, with 40% rain chance from isolated thunderstorms, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 32°C (38% implied probability) and 33°C (31.5%). Persistent cloud cover and high humidity typical of the peak rainy season often cap afternoon peaks near or slightly above seasonal averages of 31–32°C, while variable steering winds and brief clearing could allow brief heating to 33°C or higher in some model runs. Historical September extremes rarely exceed 34°C without stronger subsidence or reduced convection, supporting the lower odds on 34°C (14.5%) and above. Updated PAGASA and global model guidance ahead of the observation window will likely drive any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$15,147Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA's latest outlook for Metro Manila on September 21 points to a 25–31°C range under southwest monsoon influence, with 40% rain chance from isolated thunderstorms, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 32°C (38% implied probability) and 33°C (31.5%). Persistent cloud cover and high humidity typical of the peak rainy season often cap afternoon peaks near or slightly above seasonal averages of 31–32°C, while variable steering winds and brief clearing could allow brief heating to 33°C or higher in some model runs. Historical September extremes rarely exceed 34°C without stronger subsidence or reduced convection, supporting the lower odds on 34°C (14.5%) and above. Updated PAGASA and global model guidance ahead of the observation window will likely drive any shifts in trader positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes