Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly flow associated with a frontal system are maintaining elevated dew points and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling across the Tokyo metropolitan area. Official guidance and GFS ensemble runs indicate overnight lows stabilizing near 22 °C, with limited spread toward 21 °C under continued overcast and moist conditions; historical September minima average ~21 °C, but the current setup suppresses further drops. Market-implied odds heavily favor 22 °C (64.5 %) or 21 °C (35.5 %), reflecting trader consensus on minimal overnight variability ahead of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s final observational tally. Updated model runs and any late-day clearing would be the key variables that could shift resolution probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 20 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 20 de septiembre?
22°C 63%
21°C 42%
23°C 13%
20°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 sep 2026
16°C o menos
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
4%
20°C
8%
21°C
37%
22°C
66%
23°C
32%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C o más
<1%
22°C 63%
21°C 42%
23°C 13%
20°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 sep 2026
16°C o menos
$141 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$93 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$600 Vol.
1%
19°C
$514 Vol.
4%
20°C
$866 Vol.
8%
21°C
$1,724 Vol.
37%
22°C
$1,864 Vol.
66%
23°C
$890 Vol.
32%
24°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
26°C o más
$41 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly flow associated with a frontal system are maintaining elevated dew points and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling across the Tokyo metropolitan area. Official guidance and GFS ensemble runs indicate overnight lows stabilizing near 22 °C, with limited spread toward 21 °C under continued overcast and moist conditions; historical September minima average ~21 °C, but the current setup suppresses further drops. Market-implied odds heavily favor 22 °C (64.5 %) or 21 °C (35.5 %), reflecting trader consensus on minimal overnight variability ahead of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s final observational tally. Updated model runs and any late-day clearing would be the key variables that could shift resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volumen
$6,797Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly flow associated with a frontal system are maintaining elevated dew points and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling across the Tokyo metropolitan area. Official guidance and GFS ensemble runs indicate overnight lows stabilizing near 22 °C, with limited spread toward 21 °C under continued overcast and moist conditions; historical September minima average ~21 °C, but the current setup suppresses further drops. Market-implied odds heavily favor 22 °C (64.5 %) or 21 °C (35.5 %), reflecting trader consensus on minimal overnight variability ahead of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s final observational tally. Updated model runs and any late-day clearing would be the key variables that could shift resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$6,797Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly flow associated with a frontal system are maintaining elevated dew points and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling across the Tokyo metropolitan area. Official guidance and GFS ensemble runs indicate overnight lows stabilizing near 22 °C, with limited spread toward 21 °C under continued overcast and moist conditions; historical September minima average ~21 °C, but the current setup suppresses further drops. Market-implied odds heavily favor 22 °C (64.5 %) or 21 °C (35.5 %), reflecting trader consensus on minimal overnight variability ahead of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s final observational tally. Updated model runs and any late-day clearing would be the key variables that could shift resolution probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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