Persistent heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover over Tokyo on September 21, driven by a broad low-pressure system and northerly winds, are limiting radiative cooling and diurnal temperature swings, anchoring overnight lows near 21–22°C according to Japan Meteorological Agency guidance. High humidity near 95% and sustained winds further moderate extremes, aligning with historical patterns for late-September frontal passages. Model consensus shows minimal spread, with the primary uncertainty centered on exact timing of any brief clear spells that could allow slightly lower readings. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 22°C and 21°C as these thresholds best match the expected minimum under continued overcast, rainy conditions through the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más baja en Tokio el 21 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más baja en Tokio el 21 de septiembre?
22°C 49%
21°C 34%
23°C 19%
24°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 sep 2026
17°C o menos
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
3%
20°C
3%
21°C
34%
22°C
49%
23°C
19%
24°C
11%
25°C
3%
26°C
2%
27°C o más
<1%
22°C 49%
21°C 34%
23°C 19%
24°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 sep 2026
17°C o menos
$31 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$206 Vol.
1%
19°C
$216 Vol.
3%
20°C
$192 Vol.
3%
21°C
$345 Vol.
34%
22°C
$487 Vol.
49%
23°C
$491 Vol.
19%
24°C
$0 Vol.
11%
25°C
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C o más
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover over Tokyo on September 21, driven by a broad low-pressure system and northerly winds, are limiting radiative cooling and diurnal temperature swings, anchoring overnight lows near 21–22°C according to Japan Meteorological Agency guidance. High humidity near 95% and sustained winds further moderate extremes, aligning with historical patterns for late-September frontal passages. Model consensus shows minimal spread, with the primary uncertainty centered on exact timing of any brief clear spells that could allow slightly lower readings. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 22°C and 21°C as these thresholds best match the expected minimum under continued overcast, rainy conditions through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$1,999Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover over Tokyo on September 21, driven by a broad low-pressure system and northerly winds, are limiting radiative cooling and diurnal temperature swings, anchoring overnight lows near 21–22°C according to Japan Meteorological Agency guidance. High humidity near 95% and sustained winds further moderate extremes, aligning with historical patterns for late-September frontal passages. Model consensus shows minimal spread, with the primary uncertainty centered on exact timing of any brief clear spells that could allow slightly lower readings. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 22°C and 21°C as these thresholds best match the expected minimum under continued overcast, rainy conditions through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,999Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover over Tokyo on September 21, driven by a broad low-pressure system and northerly winds, are limiting radiative cooling and diurnal temperature swings, anchoring overnight lows near 21–22°C according to Japan Meteorological Agency guidance. High humidity near 95% and sustained winds further moderate extremes, aligning with historical patterns for late-September frontal passages. Model consensus shows minimal spread, with the primary uncertainty centered on exact timing of any brief clear spells that could allow slightly lower readings. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 22°C and 21°C as these thresholds best match the expected minimum under continued overcast, rainy conditions through the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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