Latest ECMWF and DWD model runs point to a 24–25°C peak in Munich on June 13 under southerly flow and weak high pressure, tempered by increasing cloud cover and scattered thundery showers that limit diurnal heating. Ensemble spreads remain tight around these values, consistent with early-June climatology where daily maxima average near 22–23°C but fluctuate several degrees with frontal passages or instability. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 24–25°C because current guidance shows only modest warm-air advection without strong subsidence or clear skies needed for 26°C or higher, while cooler outcomes would require unexpected strengthening of the showers or a timing shift in the frontal boundary. Updated high-resolution runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine the exact maximum.