Market-implied odds center on 33°C as the most likely daily maximum in Tel Aviv on August 15, driven by short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including the Israel Meteorological Service and AccuWeather that project highs of 31–33°C under persistent subtropical high pressure and light westerly flow. These conditions align closely with mid-August climatology, where average highs reach 30–31°C with low precipitation risk and modest humidity. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, supporting the 61% consensus for 33°C and 28% for 34°C while assigning low probability to outliers above 35°C. Updated guidance expected within 48 hours could refine the upper bound if any mesoscale warming signals emerge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Tel Aviv el 15 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Tel Aviv el 15 de agosto?
33°C 61%
34°C 29%
32°C 8%
35°C 3.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 ago 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
8%
33°C
61%
34°C
29%
35°C
3%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 61%
34°C 29%
32°C 8%
35°C 3.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 ago 2026
30°C or below
$380 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$377 Vol.
1%
32°C
$459 Vol.
8%
33°C
$904 Vol.
61%
34°C
$553 Vol.
29%
35°C
$194 Vol.
3%
36°C
$343 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$942 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$333 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$276 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$654 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds center on 33°C as the most likely daily maximum in Tel Aviv on August 15, driven by short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including the Israel Meteorological Service and AccuWeather that project highs of 31–33°C under persistent subtropical high pressure and light westerly flow. These conditions align closely with mid-August climatology, where average highs reach 30–31°C with low precipitation risk and modest humidity. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, supporting the 61% consensus for 33°C and 28% for 34°C while assigning low probability to outliers above 35°C. Updated guidance expected within 48 hours could refine the upper bound if any mesoscale warming signals emerge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$5,415Fecha de finalización
15 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds center on 33°C as the most likely daily maximum in Tel Aviv on August 15, driven by short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including the Israel Meteorological Service and AccuWeather that project highs of 31–33°C under persistent subtropical high pressure and light westerly flow. These conditions align closely with mid-August climatology, where average highs reach 30–31°C with low precipitation risk and modest humidity. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, supporting the 61% consensus for 33°C and 28% for 34°C while assigning low probability to outliers above 35°C. Updated guidance expected within 48 hours could refine the upper bound if any mesoscale warming signals emerge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$5,415Fecha de finalización
15 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds center on 33°C as the most likely daily maximum in Tel Aviv on August 15, driven by short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including the Israel Meteorological Service and AccuWeather that project highs of 31–33°C under persistent subtropical high pressure and light westerly flow. These conditions align closely with mid-August climatology, where average highs reach 30–31°C with low precipitation risk and modest humidity. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, supporting the 61% consensus for 33°C and 28% for 34°C while assigning low probability to outliers above 35°C. Updated guidance expected within 48 hours could refine the upper bound if any mesoscale warming signals emerge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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