**Recent model consensus and post-frontal cooling position Warsaw’s June 13 maximum most likely between 19–21 °C.** A sharp temperature drop on June 10, driven by a low-pressure system, rain, and cold-air advection, has left cooler maritime air in place with continued westerly flow and cloud cover expected through mid-week. BBC and other guidance show highs near 19–20 °C for the 13th amid possible showers or drizzle that limit daytime heating. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS runs cluster tightly around this range, producing the near-even market split (19 °C at 32 %, 20 °C at 30.5 %, 21 °C at 22 %). Differentiating factors include exact timing and coverage of convective activity, which can suppress maxima by 1–2 °C on any given run, versus partial clearing that would allow slightly warmer readings. Historical mid-June averages sit near 22 °C, but the current synoptic pattern favors the lower side of climatology. New model cycles and updated observational data in the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.