Recent redistricting changes approved by the U.S. Supreme Court in June 2026, allowing Alabama’s 2023 legislative map to take effect for the November 2026 elections, form the main driver behind trader consensus favoring Democrats winning exactly one House seat. The updated boundaries reduced the Black population share and Democratic performance metrics in the 2nd District, shifting it toward Likely Republican status while preserving a Solid Democratic hold in the 7th District. Special primaries held August 11, 2026, confirmed Democratic nominees in the affected seats with no major upsets, and early internal polling in the 2nd shows a close but GOP-leaning general election contest. This map-driven consolidation of Republican advantages, combined with Alabama’s overall partisan baseline, positions a single Democratic seat as the highest-probability outcome while leaving limited room for a second win under favorable turnout or national conditions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1 76%
2 19%
0 3.9%
3+ 3.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 nov 2026
0
4%
1
76%
2
19%
3+
4%
1 76%
2 19%
0 3.9%
3+ 3.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 nov 2026
0
$236 Vol.
4%
1
$961 Vol.
76%
2
$2,150 Vol.
19%
3+
$205 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Alabama in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Alabama US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent redistricting changes approved by the U.S. Supreme Court in June 2026, allowing Alabama’s 2023 legislative map to take effect for the November 2026 elections, form the main driver behind trader consensus favoring Democrats winning exactly one House seat. The updated boundaries reduced the Black population share and Democratic performance metrics in the 2nd District, shifting it toward Likely Republican status while preserving a Solid Democratic hold in the 7th District. Special primaries held August 11, 2026, confirmed Democratic nominees in the affected seats with no major upsets, and early internal polling in the 2nd shows a close but GOP-leaning general election contest. This map-driven consolidation of Republican advantages, combined with Alabama’s overall partisan baseline, positions a single Democratic seat as the highest-probability outcome while leaving limited room for a second win under favorable turnout or national conditions.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Alabama in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Alabama US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Alabama US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 11, 2026, 10:01 AM ET
Volumen
$3,552Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Alabama in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Alabama US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent redistricting changes approved by the U.S. Supreme Court in June 2026, allowing Alabama’s 2023 legislative map to take effect for the November 2026 elections, form the main driver behind trader consensus favoring Democrats winning exactly one House seat. The updated boundaries reduced the Black population share and Democratic performance metrics in the 2nd District, shifting it toward Likely Republican status while preserving a Solid Democratic hold in the 7th District. Special primaries held August 11, 2026, confirmed Democratic nominees in the affected seats with no major upsets, and early internal polling in the 2nd shows a close but GOP-leaning general election contest. This map-driven consolidation of Republican advantages, combined with Alabama’s overall partisan baseline, positions a single Democratic seat as the highest-probability outcome while leaving limited room for a second win under favorable turnout or national conditions.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Alabama in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Alabama US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Alabama US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,552Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent redistricting changes approved by the U.S. Supreme Court in June 2026, allowing Alabama’s 2023 legislative map to take effect for the November 2026 elections, form the main driver behind trader consensus favoring Democrats winning exactly one House seat. The updated boundaries reduced the Black population share and Democratic performance metrics in the 2nd District, shifting it toward Likely Republican status while preserving a Solid Democratic hold in the 7th District. Special primaries held August 11, 2026, confirmed Democratic nominees in the affected seats with no major upsets, and early internal polling in the 2nd shows a close but GOP-leaning general election contest. This map-driven consolidation of Republican advantages, combined with Alabama’s overall partisan baseline, positions a single Democratic seat as the highest-probability outcome while leaving limited room for a second win under favorable turnout or national conditions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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