Traders currently assign the strongest probability to fewer than five posts by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the May 15–22 window, consistent with his long-standing pattern of measured public communication. Recent diplomatic exchanges with regional actors and statements on domestic economic priorities have not generated the volume of official commentary seen in prior periods of heightened tension. The pricing reflects expectations that no immediate escalation in foreign policy disputes or domestic policy shifts will require additional output from the office in the coming days. Historical posting frequency during comparable intervals without major announcements reinforces this positioning, though any unanticipated regional development could alter activity levels before the period closes.