Forecast consensus from multiple models places Guangzhou's minimum temperature for September 2 in the 23–25°C range, with several runs converging near 24°C amid northwesterly flow and partial clearing that supports moderate overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 24°C (58% implied probability), 25°C (46%), and 23°C (41.5%), as traders weigh subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover timing, and urban heat-island effects against the climatological average low of 25°C. Higher outcomes above 27°C remain discounted given persistent humidity near 60–70% and limited cold-air advection, while sub-22°C probabilities stay low absent stronger frontal passages. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine the exact threshold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Guangzhou el 2 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Guangzhou el 2 de septiembre?
28°C 100%
25°C 87%
23°C 83%
27°C 83%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 sep 2026
19°C or below
4%
20°C
5%
21°C
54%
22°C
19%
23°C
83%
24°C
58%
25°C
87%
26°C
82%
27°C
83%
28°C
100%
29°C or higher
38%
28°C 100%
25°C 87%
23°C 83%
27°C 83%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 sep 2026
19°C or below
$8 Vol.
4%
20°C
$63 Vol.
5%
21°C
$63 Vol.
54%
22°C
$0 Vol.
19%
23°C
$0 Vol.
83%
24°C
$0 Vol.
58%
25°C
$0 Vol.
87%
26°C
$0 Vol.
82%
27°C
$0 Vol.
83%
28°C
$5 Vol.
100%
29°C or higher
$5 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from multiple models places Guangzhou's minimum temperature for September 2 in the 23–25°C range, with several runs converging near 24°C amid northwesterly flow and partial clearing that supports moderate overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 24°C (58% implied probability), 25°C (46%), and 23°C (41.5%), as traders weigh subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover timing, and urban heat-island effects against the climatological average low of 25°C. Higher outcomes above 27°C remain discounted given persistent humidity near 60–70% and limited cold-air advection, while sub-22°C probabilities stay low absent stronger frontal passages. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 31, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volumen
$144Fecha de finalización
2 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 12:32 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from multiple models places Guangzhou's minimum temperature for September 2 in the 23–25°C range, with several runs converging near 24°C amid northwesterly flow and partial clearing that supports moderate overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 24°C (58% implied probability), 25°C (46%), and 23°C (41.5%), as traders weigh subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover timing, and urban heat-island effects against the climatological average low of 25°C. Higher outcomes above 27°C remain discounted given persistent humidity near 60–70% and limited cold-air advection, while sub-22°C probabilities stay low absent stronger frontal passages. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$144Fecha de finalización
2 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 12:32 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from multiple models places Guangzhou's minimum temperature for September 2 in the 23–25°C range, with several runs converging near 24°C amid northwesterly flow and partial clearing that supports moderate overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 24°C (58% implied probability), 25°C (46%), and 23°C (41.5%), as traders weigh subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover timing, and urban heat-island effects against the climatological average low of 25°C. Higher outcomes above 27°C remain discounted given persistent humidity near 60–70% and limited cold-air advection, while sub-22°C probabilities stay low absent stronger frontal passages. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine the exact threshold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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