**Forecast models indicate a likely minimum temperature in Tel Aviv on August 28 around 24–26°C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities near 44–46.5% for those outcomes.** Current guidance from sources such as WeatherBug, Yr.no, and Météo Horizon shows overnight lows in the mid-20s Celsius under partly cloudy skies and light variable winds, with daytime highs near 31–34°C. This aligns with typical late-August Mediterranean conditions where clear or partly cloudy nights allow moderate radiative cooling, tempered by high humidity (often 85–93% near dawn) and the moderating influence of the nearby sea. Recent days have featured similar stable patterns, with recorded or forecast minima of 23–26°C amid above-average warmth and negligible precipitation. Model consensus supports this range, though small differences in wind direction (e.g., southeasterly flows) or cloud cover can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. The elevated probability on 29°C+ reflects residual uncertainty in longer-range guidance, while lower outcomes below 22°C remain unlikely given the current warm baseline and lack of incoming cooler air masses. Updated runs from agencies like the Israeli Meteorological Service or global ensembles (ECMWF/GFS) over the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signal for resolution.