Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a maximum temperature in Madrid on August 26 most likely between 28°C and 29°C, driven by a transient Atlantic trough that has introduced cooler, moister maritime air over the central Iberian Peninsula and temporarily weakened the typical summer heat low. This circulation shift has lowered daytime maxima several degrees below the late-August climatological average of 31–32°C. With resolution only 48 hours away, trader consensus at 29°C (46%) and 30°C (22.5%) reflects the tight clustering of ensemble guidance and limited remaining uncertainty in steering patterns or diurnal heating. Any strengthening of southerly flow or delayed trough passage could push readings toward 30–31°C, while further Atlantic influence would favor the 28°C outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 26 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 26 de agosto?
29°C 46%
30°C 23%
28°C 15%
31°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
26 ago 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
3%
27°C
4%
28°C
15%
29°C
46%
30°C
23%
31°C
10%
32°C
2%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
1%
29°C 46%
30°C 23%
28°C 15%
31°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
26 ago 2026
25°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
26°C
$40 Vol.
3%
27°C
$50 Vol.
4%
28°C
$52 Vol.
15%
29°C
$84 Vol.
46%
30°C
$201 Vol.
23%
31°C
$0 Vol.
10%
32°C
$81 Vol.
2%
33°C
$5 Vol.
2%
34°C
$0 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a maximum temperature in Madrid on August 26 most likely between 28°C and 29°C, driven by a transient Atlantic trough that has introduced cooler, moister maritime air over the central Iberian Peninsula and temporarily weakened the typical summer heat low. This circulation shift has lowered daytime maxima several degrees below the late-August climatological average of 31–32°C. With resolution only 48 hours away, trader consensus at 29°C (46%) and 30°C (22.5%) reflects the tight clustering of ensemble guidance and limited remaining uncertainty in steering patterns or diurnal heating. Any strengthening of southerly flow or delayed trough passage could push readings toward 30–31°C, while further Atlantic influence would favor the 28°C outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$518Fecha de finalización
26 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a maximum temperature in Madrid on August 26 most likely between 28°C and 29°C, driven by a transient Atlantic trough that has introduced cooler, moister maritime air over the central Iberian Peninsula and temporarily weakened the typical summer heat low. This circulation shift has lowered daytime maxima several degrees below the late-August climatological average of 31–32°C. With resolution only 48 hours away, trader consensus at 29°C (46%) and 30°C (22.5%) reflects the tight clustering of ensemble guidance and limited remaining uncertainty in steering patterns or diurnal heating. Any strengthening of southerly flow or delayed trough passage could push readings toward 30–31°C, while further Atlantic influence would favor the 28°C outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$518Fecha de finalización
26 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a maximum temperature in Madrid on August 26 most likely between 28°C and 29°C, driven by a transient Atlantic trough that has introduced cooler, moister maritime air over the central Iberian Peninsula and temporarily weakened the typical summer heat low. This circulation shift has lowered daytime maxima several degrees below the late-August climatological average of 31–32°C. With resolution only 48 hours away, trader consensus at 29°C (46%) and 30°C (22.5%) reflects the tight clustering of ensemble guidance and limited remaining uncertainty in steering patterns or diurnal heating. Any strengthening of southerly flow or delayed trough passage could push readings toward 30–31°C, while further Atlantic influence would favor the 28°C outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes