Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound from a prior contraction has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion for Q3, with the 1.5-2.0% and 1.0-1.5% brackets commanding the highest market-implied odds. Weak domestic demand, subdued investment, and persistent uncertainty tied to trade and U.S. policy continue to cap upside, aligning with consensus full-year 2026 forecasts clustered near 1.2-1.8%. Low unemployment near 2.9% and inflation at 3.1% support consumption, yet Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate signals caution on growth risks. Key upcoming releases on industrial production, retail sales, and the next INEGI report will likely determine whether momentum persists or moderates toward the lower end of the distribution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1.5-2.0% 34%
1.0-1.5% 29%
2.0-2.5% 25%
2.5-3.0% 12%
$12,342 Vol.
$12,342 Vol.
30 oct 2026
<0.5%
5%
0.5-1.0%
4%
1.0-1.5%
29%
1.5-2.0%
34%
2.0-2.5%
25%
2.5-3.0%
12%
3.0-3.5%
3%
3.5%+
<1%
1.5-2.0% 34%
1.0-1.5% 29%
2.0-2.5% 25%
2.5-3.0% 12%
$12,342 Vol.
$12,342 Vol.
30 oct 2026
<0.5%
$256 Vol.
5%
0.5-1.0%
$193 Vol.
4%
1.0-1.5%
$2,231 Vol.
29%
1.5-2.0%
$2,335 Vol.
34%
2.0-2.5%
$6,513 Vol.
25%
2.5-3.0%
$364 Vol.
12%
3.0-3.5%
$248 Vol.
3%
3.5%+
$203 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound from a prior contraction has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion for Q3, with the 1.5-2.0% and 1.0-1.5% brackets commanding the highest market-implied odds. Weak domestic demand, subdued investment, and persistent uncertainty tied to trade and U.S. policy continue to cap upside, aligning with consensus full-year 2026 forecasts clustered near 1.2-1.8%. Low unemployment near 2.9% and inflation at 3.1% support consumption, yet Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate signals caution on growth risks. Key upcoming releases on industrial production, retail sales, and the next INEGI report will likely determine whether momentum persists or moderates toward the lower end of the distribution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$12,342Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound from a prior contraction has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion for Q3, with the 1.5-2.0% and 1.0-1.5% brackets commanding the highest market-implied odds. Weak domestic demand, subdued investment, and persistent uncertainty tied to trade and U.S. policy continue to cap upside, aligning with consensus full-year 2026 forecasts clustered near 1.2-1.8%. Low unemployment near 2.9% and inflation at 3.1% support consumption, yet Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate signals caution on growth risks. Key upcoming releases on industrial production, retail sales, and the next INEGI report will likely determine whether momentum persists or moderates toward the lower end of the distribution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$12,342Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound from a prior contraction has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion for Q3, with the 1.5-2.0% and 1.0-1.5% brackets commanding the highest market-implied odds. Weak domestic demand, subdued investment, and persistent uncertainty tied to trade and U.S. policy continue to cap upside, aligning with consensus full-year 2026 forecasts clustered near 1.2-1.8%. Low unemployment near 2.9% and inflation at 3.1% support consumption, yet Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate signals caution on growth risks. Key upcoming releases on industrial production, retail sales, and the next INEGI report will likely determine whether momentum persists or moderates toward the lower end of the distribution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes