Trader consensus strongly favors no reclassification of Pluto as a planet by June 30, with 93% implied probability on "No," anchored in the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) 2006 definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid the Kuiper Belt's population of similar objects. New Horizons mission data revealed Pluto's complex geology and thin atmosphere, bolstering arguments for geophysical planet status, but IAU criteria prioritize dynamical dominance. NASA's administrator Jared Isaacman reignited debate in an April 28 Senate hearing, signaling preparation of scientific papers to challenge the definition, yet no IAU proposal, vote, or General Assembly is scheduled before the deadline. A surprise IAU acceptance of NASA's case or emergency revision could shift odds, though procedural hurdles make this improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Plutón reclasificado como planeta para el 30 de junio?
¿Plutón reclasificado como planeta para el 30 de junio?
Sí
$22,086 Vol.
$22,086 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$22,086 Vol.
$22,086 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.Trader consensus strongly favors no reclassification of Pluto as a planet by June 30, with 93% implied probability on "No," anchored in the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) 2006 definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid the Kuiper Belt's population of similar objects. New Horizons mission data revealed Pluto's complex geology and thin atmosphere, bolstering arguments for geophysical planet status, but IAU criteria prioritize dynamical dominance. NASA's administrator Jared Isaacman reignited debate in an April 28 Senate hearing, signaling preparation of scientific papers to challenge the definition, yet no IAU proposal, vote, or General Assembly is scheduled before the deadline. A surprise IAU acceptance of NASA's case or emergency revision could shift odds, though procedural hurdles make this improbable.
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
Mercado abierto: Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$22,086Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.Trader consensus strongly favors no reclassification of Pluto as a planet by June 30, with 93% implied probability on "No," anchored in the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) 2006 definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid the Kuiper Belt's population of similar objects. New Horizons mission data revealed Pluto's complex geology and thin atmosphere, bolstering arguments for geophysical planet status, but IAU criteria prioritize dynamical dominance. NASA's administrator Jared Isaacman reignited debate in an April 28 Senate hearing, signaling preparation of scientific papers to challenge the definition, yet no IAU proposal, vote, or General Assembly is scheduled before the deadline. A surprise IAU acceptance of NASA's case or emergency revision could shift odds, though procedural hurdles make this improbable.
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
Volumen
$22,086Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors no reclassification of Pluto as a planet by June 30, with 93% implied probability on "No," anchored in the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) 2006 definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid the Kuiper Belt's population of similar objects. New Horizons mission data revealed Pluto's complex geology and thin atmosphere, bolstering arguments for geophysical planet status, but IAU criteria prioritize dynamical dominance. NASA's administrator Jared Isaacman reignited debate in an April 28 Senate hearing, signaling preparation of scientific papers to challenge the definition, yet no IAU proposal, vote, or General Assembly is scheduled before the deadline. A surprise IAU acceptance of NASA's case or emergency revision could shift odds, though procedural hurdles make this improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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