South Korea's Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth outlook centers on the interplay between AI-fueled semiconductor exports and moderating domestic demand amid elevated inflation. Q2 data showed 3.7% YoY expansion, supported by a 1.4% QoQ export rise led by IT products, while full-year consensus forecasts from the government, Bank of Korea, and OECD cluster around 2.6–3.0%. The Bank of Korea's July rate hike to 2.75% reflects CPI accelerating to 3.2% amid Middle East-driven oil volatility, potentially weighing on consumption and investment. With Q3 data still emerging, trader-implied odds favor the 3.0–3.4% and 2.5–2.9% bands due to resilient chip demand offset by risks from global trade tensions and softer non-tech sectors. Upcoming export figures and September monetary policy signals will likely refine these probabilities before official Q3 release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado3,0–3,4% 36%
2.5–2.9% 32%
3.5–3.9% 21.0%
2,0–2,4% 11%
$37,974 Vol.
$37,974 Vol.
27 oct 2026
<2.0%
3%
2,0–2,4%
11%
2.5–2.9%
32%
3,0–3,4%
36%
3.5–3.9%
21%
4,0–4,4%
1%
4,5–4,9%
1%
5,0%+
1%
3,0–3,4% 36%
2.5–2.9% 32%
3.5–3.9% 21.0%
2,0–2,4% 11%
$37,974 Vol.
$37,974 Vol.
27 oct 2026
<2.0%
$533 Vol.
3%
2,0–2,4%
$11,847 Vol.
11%
2.5–2.9%
$3,551 Vol.
32%
3,0–3,4%
$20,153 Vol.
36%
3.5–3.9%
$752 Vol.
21%
4,0–4,4%
$507 Vol.
1%
4,5–4,9%
$317 Vol.
1%
5,0%+
$314 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01South Korea's Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth outlook centers on the interplay between AI-fueled semiconductor exports and moderating domestic demand amid elevated inflation. Q2 data showed 3.7% YoY expansion, supported by a 1.4% QoQ export rise led by IT products, while full-year consensus forecasts from the government, Bank of Korea, and OECD cluster around 2.6–3.0%. The Bank of Korea's July rate hike to 2.75% reflects CPI accelerating to 3.2% amid Middle East-driven oil volatility, potentially weighing on consumption and investment. With Q3 data still emerging, trader-implied odds favor the 3.0–3.4% and 2.5–2.9% bands due to resilient chip demand offset by risks from global trade tensions and softer non-tech sectors. Upcoming export figures and September monetary policy signals will likely refine these probabilities before official Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$37,974Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01South Korea's Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth outlook centers on the interplay between AI-fueled semiconductor exports and moderating domestic demand amid elevated inflation. Q2 data showed 3.7% YoY expansion, supported by a 1.4% QoQ export rise led by IT products, while full-year consensus forecasts from the government, Bank of Korea, and OECD cluster around 2.6–3.0%. The Bank of Korea's July rate hike to 2.75% reflects CPI accelerating to 3.2% amid Middle East-driven oil volatility, potentially weighing on consumption and investment. With Q3 data still emerging, trader-implied odds favor the 3.0–3.4% and 2.5–2.9% bands due to resilient chip demand offset by risks from global trade tensions and softer non-tech sectors. Upcoming export figures and September monetary policy signals will likely refine these probabilities before official Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volumen
$37,974Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...South Korea's Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth outlook centers on the interplay between AI-fueled semiconductor exports and moderating domestic demand amid elevated inflation. Q2 data showed 3.7% YoY expansion, supported by a 1.4% QoQ export rise led by IT products, while full-year consensus forecasts from the government, Bank of Korea, and OECD cluster around 2.6–3.0%. The Bank of Korea's July rate hike to 2.75% reflects CPI accelerating to 3.2% amid Middle East-driven oil volatility, potentially weighing on consumption and investment. With Q3 data still emerging, trader-implied odds favor the 3.0–3.4% and 2.5–2.9% bands due to resilient chip demand offset by risks from global trade tensions and softer non-tech sectors. Upcoming export figures and September monetary policy signals will likely refine these probabilities before official Q3 release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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