**Trader consensus heavily favors the Under at 86.5% implied probability for the ungraded Squirtle (Mega Evolution Black Star Promos #039) price on Collectr by September 30, reflecting expectations of a near-term pullback from recent levels around $34.** The primary driver is the broader cooling in the Pokémon TCG secondary market after summer peaks, with buyer attention shifting toward newer sets and typical seasonal softening in raw promo card values during late September. Historical patterns show ungraded promos often ease in this window amid reduced collector activity and market volatility, outweighing any steady demand for classic Squirtle artwork. Recent sales data and pricing trackers indicate the card has hovered in the low-to-mid $30s without strong upward momentum, reinforcing the bearish tilt among traders with skin in the game. Key upcoming catalysts include the final Collectr price publication for the month and any late-September TCG market updates or release news that could influence short-term sentiment. The wide gap between current pricing and the $29.20 threshold underscores the market’s view that a modest decline is the most probable path.