Traders see a 97.6% probability against Trump endorsing China's claim to Taiwan by the end of a summit with Xi because the president's record shows consistent emphasis on Taiwan's security through arms support, official contacts, and strategic competition with Beijing. Diplomatic channels have centered on trade, technology controls, and regional stability without any public signals of a reversal on sovereignty questions. This pricing captures the market's assessment of entrenched U.S. policy continuity and standard summit agendas. Even with such high implied odds, late developments such as an unexpected bilateral concession, domestic political shifts, or abrupt changes in summit outcomes could still move probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
2% probabilidad
$17,426 Vol.
$17,426 Vol.
7 oct 2026
Sí
2% probabilidad
$17,426 Vol.
$17,426 Vol.
7 oct 2026
Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly endorses the People's Republic of China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan by the end of this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, Trump must make an explicit public statement affirming that Taiwan is part of China, that China has sovereignty over Taiwan, or that the United States supports China's claim to Taiwan.
Restating the long-standing United States "One China policy", acknowledging that China holds such a position, noting that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence, or declining to say whether the United States would defend Taiwan will not qualify, as none of these constitutes an endorsement of China's claim.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. A statement issued jointly by the United States and China will qualify if Trump personally endorses it.
The summit will be considered to have ended at the end of the calendar day (ET) on which Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. No meetings, events, or statements which occur after this time will be considered.
If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see a 97.6% probability against Trump endorsing China's claim to Taiwan by the end of a summit with Xi because the president's record shows consistent emphasis on Taiwan's security through arms support, official contacts, and strategic competition with Beijing. Diplomatic channels have centered on trade, technology controls, and regional stability without any public signals of a reversal on sovereignty questions. This pricing captures the market's assessment of entrenched U.S. policy continuity and standard summit agendas. Even with such high implied odds, late developments such as an unexpected bilateral concession, domestic political shifts, or abrupt changes in summit outcomes could still move probabilities.
Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly endorses the People's Republic of China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan by the end of this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, Trump must make an explicit public statement affirming that Taiwan is part of China, that China has sovereignty over Taiwan, or that the United States supports China's claim to Taiwan.
Restating the long-standing United States "One China policy", acknowledging that China holds such a position, noting that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence, or declining to say whether the United States would defend Taiwan will not qualify, as none of these constitutes an endorsement of China's claim.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. A statement issued jointly by the United States and China will qualify if Trump personally endorses it.
The summit will be considered to have ended at the end of the calendar day (ET) on which Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. No meetings, events, or statements which occur after this time will be considered.
If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly endorses the People's Republic of China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan by the end of this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, Trump must make an explicit public statement affirming that Taiwan is part of China, that China has sovereignty over Taiwan, or that the United States supports China's claim to Taiwan.
Restating the long-standing United States "One China policy", acknowledging that China holds such a position, noting that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence, or declining to say whether the United States would defend Taiwan will not qualify, as none of these constitutes an endorsement of China's claim.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. A statement issued jointly by the United States and China will qualify if Trump personally endorses it.
The summit will be considered to have ended at the end of the calendar day (ET) on which Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. No meetings, events, or statements which occur after this time will be considered.
If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Sep 16, 2026, 5:59 PM ET
Volumen
$17,426Fecha de finalización
8 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 16, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly endorses the People's Republic of China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan by the end of this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, Trump must make an explicit public statement affirming that Taiwan is part of China, that China has sovereignty over Taiwan, or that the United States supports China's claim to Taiwan.
Restating the long-standing United States "One China policy", acknowledging that China holds such a position, noting that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence, or declining to say whether the United States would defend Taiwan will not qualify, as none of these constitutes an endorsement of China's claim.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. A statement issued jointly by the United States and China will qualify if Trump personally endorses it.
The summit will be considered to have ended at the end of the calendar day (ET) on which Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. No meetings, events, or statements which occur after this time will be considered.
If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see a 97.6% probability against Trump endorsing China's claim to Taiwan by the end of a summit with Xi because the president's record shows consistent emphasis on Taiwan's security through arms support, official contacts, and strategic competition with Beijing. Diplomatic channels have centered on trade, technology controls, and regional stability without any public signals of a reversal on sovereignty questions. This pricing captures the market's assessment of entrenched U.S. policy continuity and standard summit agendas. Even with such high implied odds, late developments such as an unexpected bilateral concession, domestic political shifts, or abrupt changes in summit outcomes could still move probabilities.
Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly endorses the People's Republic of China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan by the end of this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, Trump must make an explicit public statement affirming that Taiwan is part of China, that China has sovereignty over Taiwan, or that the United States supports China's claim to Taiwan.
Restating the long-standing United States "One China policy", acknowledging that China holds such a position, noting that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence, or declining to say whether the United States would defend Taiwan will not qualify, as none of these constitutes an endorsement of China's claim.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. A statement issued jointly by the United States and China will qualify if Trump personally endorses it.
The summit will be considered to have ended at the end of the calendar day (ET) on which Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. No meetings, events, or statements which occur after this time will be considered.
If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly endorses the People's Republic of China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan by the end of this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, Trump must make an explicit public statement affirming that Taiwan is part of China, that China has sovereignty over Taiwan, or that the United States supports China's claim to Taiwan.
Restating the long-standing United States "One China policy", acknowledging that China holds such a position, noting that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence, or declining to say whether the United States would defend Taiwan will not qualify, as none of these constitutes an endorsement of China's claim.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. A statement issued jointly by the United States and China will qualify if Trump personally endorses it.
The summit will be considered to have ended at the end of the calendar day (ET) on which Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. No meetings, events, or statements which occur after this time will be considered.
If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$17,426Fecha de finalización
8 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 16, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders see a 97.6% probability against Trump endorsing China's claim to Taiwan by the end of a summit with Xi because the president's record shows consistent emphasis on Taiwan's security through arms support, official contacts, and strategic competition with Beijing. Diplomatic channels have centered on trade, technology controls, and regional stability without any public signals of a reversal on sovereignty questions. This pricing captures the market's assessment of entrenched U.S. policy continuity and standard summit agendas. Even with such high implied odds, late developments such as an unexpected bilateral concession, domestic political shifts, or abrupt changes in summit outcomes could still move probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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