Jerome Powell's second term as Federal Reserve Chair concluded on May 15, 2026, positioning the immediate post-expiration window as the dominant outcome in trader consensus. Senate confirmation of his successor, Kevin Warsh, earlier that week cleared the path for an orderly transition, while Powell's announcement that he would remain on the Board of Governors pro tempore until the swearing-in has reinforced expectations of a clean handoff within days. This sequence aligns with historical patterns for chair successions and explains why probabilities cluster sharply in the final two weeks of May rather than extending further. Traders view the combination of term expiration and confirmed replacement as the decisive catalysts, with any delay in Warsh's formal installation representing the primary remaining variable that could shift the resolution timing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWhen will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
May 15–22 51.0%
May 23–29 28.7%
May 30–June 5 6.2%
June 6–12 2.7%
$168,219 Vol.
$168,219 Vol.
3 jul 2026
May 15–22
51%
May 23–29
43%
May 30–June 5
6%
June 6–12
3%
June 13–19
2%
June 20–26
1%
June 27–July 3
1%
After July 3
1%
May 15–22 51.0%
May 23–29 28.7%
May 30–June 5 6.2%
June 6–12 2.7%
$168,219 Vol.
$168,219 Vol.
3 jul 2026
May 15–22
$64,693 Vol.
51%
May 23–29
$8,345 Vol.
43%
May 30–June 5
$9,137 Vol.
6%
June 6–12
$9,059 Vol.
3%
June 13–19
$8,855 Vol.
2%
June 20–26
$10,068 Vol.
1%
June 27–July 3
$5,200 Vol.
1%
After July 3
$15,911 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jerome Powell's second term as Federal Reserve Chair concluded on May 15, 2026, positioning the immediate post-expiration window as the dominant outcome in trader consensus. Senate confirmation of his successor, Kevin Warsh, earlier that week cleared the path for an orderly transition, while Powell's announcement that he would remain on the Board of Governors pro tempore until the swearing-in has reinforced expectations of a clean handoff within days. This sequence aligns with historical patterns for chair successions and explains why probabilities cluster sharply in the final two weeks of May rather than extending further. Traders view the combination of term expiration and confirmed replacement as the decisive catalysts, with any delay in Warsh's formal installation representing the primary remaining variable that could shift the resolution timing.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ET
Volumen
$168,219Fecha de finalización
3 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jerome Powell's second term as Federal Reserve Chair concluded on May 15, 2026, positioning the immediate post-expiration window as the dominant outcome in trader consensus. Senate confirmation of his successor, Kevin Warsh, earlier that week cleared the path for an orderly transition, while Powell's announcement that he would remain on the Board of Governors pro tempore until the swearing-in has reinforced expectations of a clean handoff within days. This sequence aligns with historical patterns for chair successions and explains why probabilities cluster sharply in the final two weeks of May rather than extending further. Traders view the combination of term expiration and confirmed replacement as the decisive catalysts, with any delay in Warsh's formal installation representing the primary remaining variable that could shift the resolution timing.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$168,219Fecha de finalización
3 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jerome Powell's second term as Federal Reserve Chair concluded on May 15, 2026, positioning the immediate post-expiration window as the dominant outcome in trader consensus. Senate confirmation of his successor, Kevin Warsh, earlier that week cleared the path for an orderly transition, while Powell's announcement that he would remain on the Board of Governors pro tempore until the swearing-in has reinforced expectations of a clean handoff within days. This sequence aligns with historical patterns for chair successions and explains why probabilities cluster sharply in the final two weeks of May rather than extending further. Traders view the combination of term expiration and confirmed replacement as the decisive catalysts, with any delay in Warsh's formal installation representing the primary remaining variable that could shift the resolution timing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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