Apple's longstanding pattern of launching flagship iPhone models each September underpins the 86.1% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and leaker confirmations, including details from May 2026, show the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable Ultra models remain scheduled for a fall 2026 debut alongside the traditional keynote cycle. While the base iPhone 18 and 18e variants have shifted to early 2027 to extend iPhone 17 sales and manage component costs, this split does not alter the high-end timeline. No credible delays or cancellations have surfaced for the Pro lineup, and the move aligns with prior strategic adjustments that preserved flagship momentum. Traders see limited downside risk absent unexpected regulatory or production disruptions ahead of the September window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$100,605 Vol.
$100,605 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$100,605 Vol.
$100,605 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's longstanding pattern of launching flagship iPhone models each September underpins the 86.1% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and leaker confirmations, including details from May 2026, show the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable Ultra models remain scheduled for a fall 2026 debut alongside the traditional keynote cycle. While the base iPhone 18 and 18e variants have shifted to early 2027 to extend iPhone 17 sales and manage component costs, this split does not alter the high-end timeline. No credible delays or cancellations have surfaced for the Pro lineup, and the move aligns with prior strategic adjustments that preserved flagship momentum. Traders see limited downside risk absent unexpected regulatory or production disruptions ahead of the September window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$100,605Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's longstanding pattern of launching flagship iPhone models each September underpins the 86.1% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and leaker confirmations, including details from May 2026, show the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable Ultra models remain scheduled for a fall 2026 debut alongside the traditional keynote cycle. While the base iPhone 18 and 18e variants have shifted to early 2027 to extend iPhone 17 sales and manage component costs, this split does not alter the high-end timeline. No credible delays or cancellations have surfaced for the Pro lineup, and the move aligns with prior strategic adjustments that preserved flagship momentum. Traders see limited downside risk absent unexpected regulatory or production disruptions ahead of the September window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$100,605Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's longstanding pattern of launching flagship iPhone models each September underpins the 86.1% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and leaker confirmations, including details from May 2026, show the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable Ultra models remain scheduled for a fall 2026 debut alongside the traditional keynote cycle. While the base iPhone 18 and 18e variants have shifted to early 2027 to extend iPhone 17 sales and manage component costs, this split does not alter the high-end timeline. No credible delays or cancellations have surfaced for the Pro lineup, and the move aligns with prior strategic adjustments that preserved flagship momentum. Traders see limited downside risk absent unexpected regulatory or production disruptions ahead of the September window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes