Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain 98.8% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 arrives in 2026. Following the iPhone 17 launch in 2025, supply-chain reports, component certifications, and typical September timing point to another on-schedule debut within weeks. Traders view this as highly predictable given Apple's hardware and software development cycles. While realistic disruptions such as major supply-chain delays, unforeseen technical issues with new AI features or chipsets, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could theoretically shift the timeline into 2027, historical precedent shows such events rarely alter the overall yearly cadence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
99% probabilidad
$175,236 Vol.
$175,236 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
99% probabilidad
$175,236 Vol.
$175,236 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain 98.8% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 arrives in 2026. Following the iPhone 17 launch in 2025, supply-chain reports, component certifications, and typical September timing point to another on-schedule debut within weeks. Traders view this as highly predictable given Apple's hardware and software development cycles. While realistic disruptions such as major supply-chain delays, unforeseen technical issues with new AI features or chipsets, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could theoretically shift the timeline into 2027, historical precedent shows such events rarely alter the overall yearly cadence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$175,236Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain 98.8% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 arrives in 2026. Following the iPhone 17 launch in 2025, supply-chain reports, component certifications, and typical September timing point to another on-schedule debut within weeks. Traders view this as highly predictable given Apple's hardware and software development cycles. While realistic disruptions such as major supply-chain delays, unforeseen technical issues with new AI features or chipsets, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could theoretically shift the timeline into 2027, historical precedent shows such events rarely alter the overall yearly cadence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$175,236Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain 98.8% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 arrives in 2026. Following the iPhone 17 launch in 2025, supply-chain reports, component certifications, and typical September timing point to another on-schedule debut within weeks. Traders view this as highly predictable given Apple's hardware and software development cycles. While realistic disruptions such as major supply-chain delays, unforeseen technical issues with new AI features or chipsets, or regulatory hurdles in key markets could theoretically shift the timeline into 2027, historical precedent shows such events rarely alter the overall yearly cadence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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