U.S. Vice President JD Vance's April 11-12 visit to Islamabad for direct peace talks with Iran—mediated by Pakistan—marked the highest-level U.S.-Iran engagement in decades, but yielded no agreement after 21 hours of negotiations, prompting his departure and the indefinite cancellation of a planned second round around April 21 due to Tehran's unresponsiveness amid a fragile ceasefire. With no further trips announced in the ensuing three weeks and trader consensus pricing a Yes outcome at just 14% by May 31, market positioning reflects stalled diplomacy, Vance's recent May 13 statements emphasizing progress via non-travel channels like consultations with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and the administration's focus on red lines against Iran's nuclear program without scheduling additional summits. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and regional escalation risks could revive talks, but Pakistan's mediator role alone has not prompted renewed Vance travel.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿JD Vance visitará Pakistán antes de...?
¿JD Vance visitará Pakistán antes de...?
$136,224 Vol.
31 may 2026
May 31
14%
$136,224 Vol.
May 31
$23,495 Vol.
14%
If JD Vance visits Pakistan by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Pakistan. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance's April 11-12 visit to Islamabad for direct peace talks with Iran—mediated by Pakistan—marked the highest-level U.S.-Iran engagement in decades, but yielded no agreement after 21 hours of negotiations, prompting his departure and the indefinite cancellation of a planned second round around April 21 due to Tehran's unresponsiveness amid a fragile ceasefire. With no further trips announced in the ensuing three weeks and trader consensus pricing a Yes outcome at just 14% by May 31, market positioning reflects stalled diplomacy, Vance's recent May 13 statements emphasizing progress via non-travel channels like consultations with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and the administration's focus on red lines against Iran's nuclear program without scheduling additional summits. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and regional escalation risks could revive talks, but Pakistan's mediator role alone has not prompted renewed Vance travel.
If JD Vance visits Pakistan by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Pakistan. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Pakistan. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 5:00 PM ET
Volumen
$136,224Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If JD Vance visits Pakistan by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Pakistan. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance's April 11-12 visit to Islamabad for direct peace talks with Iran—mediated by Pakistan—marked the highest-level U.S.-Iran engagement in decades, but yielded no agreement after 21 hours of negotiations, prompting his departure and the indefinite cancellation of a planned second round around April 21 due to Tehran's unresponsiveness amid a fragile ceasefire. With no further trips announced in the ensuing three weeks and trader consensus pricing a Yes outcome at just 14% by May 31, market positioning reflects stalled diplomacy, Vance's recent May 13 statements emphasizing progress via non-travel channels like consultations with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and the administration's focus on red lines against Iran's nuclear program without scheduling additional summits. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and regional escalation risks could revive talks, but Pakistan's mediator role alone has not prompted renewed Vance travel.
If JD Vance visits Pakistan by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Pakistan. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Pakistan. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$136,224Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. Vice President JD Vance's April 11-12 visit to Islamabad for direct peace talks with Iran—mediated by Pakistan—marked the highest-level U.S.-Iran engagement in decades, but yielded no agreement after 21 hours of negotiations, prompting his departure and the indefinite cancellation of a planned second round around April 21 due to Tehran's unresponsiveness amid a fragile ceasefire. With no further trips announced in the ensuing three weeks and trader consensus pricing a Yes outcome at just 14% by May 31, market positioning reflects stalled diplomacy, Vance's recent May 13 statements emphasizing progress via non-travel channels like consultations with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and the administration's focus on red lines against Iran's nuclear program without scheduling additional summits. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and regional escalation risks could revive talks, but Pakistan's mediator role alone has not prompted renewed Vance travel.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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