Met Office provisional data through early August show the UK's meteorological summer mean temperature already at 16.48°C—well above the 16.10°C record set in 2025—with multiple heatwaves driving exceptional daytime maxima, including a provisional 38.1°C peak at Kew Gardens. The agency states that only average conditions are required for the remainder of August to confirm 2026 as the warmest summer since records began, supported by the season's first instances of 35°C+ temperatures across three calendar months and the highest number of days at or above 36°C. Persistent blocking patterns have favored prolonged warmth and reduced rainfall, aligning with observed trends in recent summers and sustaining trader consensus around the current 81% implied probability for the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Será el verano de 2026 el verano más caluroso registrado en el Reino Unido?
¿Será el verano de 2026 el verano más caluroso registrado en el Reino Unido?
81% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 oct 2026
81% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 oct 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Met Office provisional data through early August show the UK's meteorological summer mean temperature already at 16.48°C—well above the 16.10°C record set in 2025—with multiple heatwaves driving exceptional daytime maxima, including a provisional 38.1°C peak at Kew Gardens. The agency states that only average conditions are required for the remainder of August to confirm 2026 as the warmest summer since records began, supported by the season's first instances of 35°C+ temperatures across three calendar months and the highest number of days at or above 36°C. Persistent blocking patterns have favored prolonged warmth and reduced rainfall, aligning with observed trends in recent summers and sustaining trader consensus around the current 81% implied probability for the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volumen
$532Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Met Office provisional data through early August show the UK's meteorological summer mean temperature already at 16.48°C—well above the 16.10°C record set in 2025—with multiple heatwaves driving exceptional daytime maxima, including a provisional 38.1°C peak at Kew Gardens. The agency states that only average conditions are required for the remainder of August to confirm 2026 as the warmest summer since records began, supported by the season's first instances of 35°C+ temperatures across three calendar months and the highest number of days at or above 36°C. Persistent blocking patterns have favored prolonged warmth and reduced rainfall, aligning with observed trends in recent summers and sustaining trader consensus around the current 81% implied probability for the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$532Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Met Office provisional data through early August show the UK's meteorological summer mean temperature already at 16.48°C—well above the 16.10°C record set in 2025—with multiple heatwaves driving exceptional daytime maxima, including a provisional 38.1°C peak at Kew Gardens. The agency states that only average conditions are required for the remainder of August to confirm 2026 as the warmest summer since records began, supported by the season's first instances of 35°C+ temperatures across three calendar months and the highest number of days at or above 36°C. Persistent blocking patterns have favored prolonged warmth and reduced rainfall, aligning with observed trends in recent summers and sustaining trader consensus around the current 81% implied probability for the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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