**NOAA’s August 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion reports El Niño already strengthening, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region at +1.4 °C and a greater than 90 % chance of a very strong event (typically defined by multi-month averages exceeding +2.0 °C) persisting through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter.** Subsurface heat content, westerly wind anomalies, and suppressed convection over Indonesia have reinforced the ocean–atmosphere coupling, while the CPC multi-model ensemble and individual dynamical forecasts project continued intensification, with some runs indicating a historic peak near or above +2.5 °C. This rapid evolution from neutral conditions earlier in 2026 underpins the 91.2 % market-implied probability. Realistic challenges remain: forecast spread across models could narrow the peak if atmospheric feedback weakens, or if an unexpected shift toward neutral conditions occurs after the usual winter maximum; verification against the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) also introduces modest uncertainty in exact strength classification.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Habrá un Super El Niño este invierno (2026–27)?
¿Habrá un Super El Niño este invierno (2026–27)?
Sí
91% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 abr 2027
Sí
91% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 abr 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.**NOAA’s August 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion reports El Niño already strengthening, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region at +1.4 °C and a greater than 90 % chance of a very strong event (typically defined by multi-month averages exceeding +2.0 °C) persisting through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter.** Subsurface heat content, westerly wind anomalies, and suppressed convection over Indonesia have reinforced the ocean–atmosphere coupling, while the CPC multi-model ensemble and individual dynamical forecasts project continued intensification, with some runs indicating a historic peak near or above +2.5 °C. This rapid evolution from neutral conditions earlier in 2026 underpins the 91.2 % market-implied probability.
Realistic challenges remain: forecast spread across models could narrow the peak if atmospheric feedback weakens, or if an unexpected shift toward neutral conditions occurs after the usual winter maximum; verification against the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) also introduces modest uncertainty in exact strength classification.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volumen
$5,506Fecha de finalización
1 abr 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.**NOAA’s August 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion reports El Niño already strengthening, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region at +1.4 °C and a greater than 90 % chance of a very strong event (typically defined by multi-month averages exceeding +2.0 °C) persisting through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter.** Subsurface heat content, westerly wind anomalies, and suppressed convection over Indonesia have reinforced the ocean–atmosphere coupling, while the CPC multi-model ensemble and individual dynamical forecasts project continued intensification, with some runs indicating a historic peak near or above +2.5 °C. This rapid evolution from neutral conditions earlier in 2026 underpins the 91.2 % market-implied probability.
Realistic challenges remain: forecast spread across models could narrow the peak if atmospheric feedback weakens, or if an unexpected shift toward neutral conditions occurs after the usual winter maximum; verification against the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) also introduces modest uncertainty in exact strength classification.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volumen
$5,506Fecha de finalización
1 abr 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**NOAA’s August 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion reports El Niño already strengthening, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region at +1.4 °C and a greater than 90 % chance of a very strong event (typically defined by multi-month averages exceeding +2.0 °C) persisting through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter.** Subsurface heat content, westerly wind anomalies, and suppressed convection over Indonesia have reinforced the ocean–atmosphere coupling, while the CPC multi-model ensemble and individual dynamical forecasts project continued intensification, with some runs indicating a historic peak near or above +2.5 °C. This rapid evolution from neutral conditions earlier in 2026 underpins the 91.2 % market-implied probability. Realistic challenges remain: forecast spread across models could narrow the peak if atmospheric feedback weakens, or if an unexpected shift toward neutral conditions occurs after the usual winter maximum; verification against the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) also introduces modest uncertainty in exact strength classification.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes