**Trump’s recent use of the older VC-25 Air Force One on July 8, 2026, from Turkey to the UK was driven by Secret Service security precautions amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and threats against the president.** He arrived in Ankara on the newer Qatari-gifted plane but switched for the return leg, later reboarding the updated aircraft in Britain. Trader consensus at 50% reflects uncertainty over whether additional travel will occur in the remaining weeks of July, the status of ongoing security assessments tied to Iran, and operational or maintenance factors affecting both aircraft. Any escalation or de-escalation in Middle East tensions, or presidential trips scheduled before month-end, could shift probabilities either way. Historical patterns show presidents sometimes favor legacy planes for shorter or lower-risk segments, but no fixed schedule governs July usage.