Traders assign a 99.3% probability that President Trump will not reduce the federal budget deficit before 2027 because current fiscal data and enacted policies show deficits on track to widen rather than shrink. The FY2025 shortfall reached roughly $1.78 trillion, and FY2026 projections from the Congressional Budget Office and Treasury point to $1.9–2.1 trillion amid rising net interest costs, sustained mandatory spending on Social Security and Medicare, and the net deficit-increasing effects of the 2025 reconciliation legislation that extended tax cuts while boosting defense and border funding. Congressional action has largely rejected proposed non-defense discretionary reductions, while tariff revenue gains have been offset by other factors including potential refunds. Realistic paths to a narrower deficit before 2027 remain narrow and would require larger-than-expected spending rescissions, stronger-than-forecast revenue growth from economic expansion or tariffs, or additional legislative changes not yet enacted.