Recent fiscal legislation, including the 2025 reconciliation measure extending tax provisions while expanding defense and border funding, has driven CBO baselines projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2026, with outlays continuing to exceed revenues amid rising net interest costs. This trajectory, reinforced by limited enacted spending reductions despite administration rescissions proposals and tariff revenue gains, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service constrain reversal. Modest upside scenarios such as stronger-than-expected growth, further debt-ceiling concessions, or accelerated efficiency measures could narrow gaps by late 2026, though baseline trends make substantial deficit reduction before 2027 improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
<1% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
<1% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Recent fiscal legislation, including the 2025 reconciliation measure extending tax provisions while expanding defense and border funding, has driven CBO baselines projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2026, with outlays continuing to exceed revenues amid rising net interest costs. This trajectory, reinforced by limited enacted spending reductions despite administration rescissions proposals and tariff revenue gains, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service constrain reversal. Modest upside scenarios such as stronger-than-expected growth, further debt-ceiling concessions, or accelerated efficiency measures could narrow gaps by late 2026, though baseline trends make substantial deficit reduction before 2027 improbable.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volumen
$2,472Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Recent fiscal legislation, including the 2025 reconciliation measure extending tax provisions while expanding defense and border funding, has driven CBO baselines projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2026, with outlays continuing to exceed revenues amid rising net interest costs. This trajectory, reinforced by limited enacted spending reductions despite administration rescissions proposals and tariff revenue gains, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service constrain reversal. Modest upside scenarios such as stronger-than-expected growth, further debt-ceiling concessions, or accelerated efficiency measures could narrow gaps by late 2026, though baseline trends make substantial deficit reduction before 2027 improbable.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volumen
$2,472Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent fiscal legislation, including the 2025 reconciliation measure extending tax provisions while expanding defense and border funding, has driven CBO baselines projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2026, with outlays continuing to exceed revenues amid rising net interest costs. This trajectory, reinforced by limited enacted spending reductions despite administration rescissions proposals and tariff revenue gains, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service constrain reversal. Modest upside scenarios such as stronger-than-expected growth, further debt-ceiling concessions, or accelerated efficiency measures could narrow gaps by late 2026, though baseline trends make substantial deficit reduction before 2027 improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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