Recent Congressional Budget Office baselines project a $1.9 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026, up from $1.8 trillion the prior year and holding near 5.8 percent of GDP amid rising net interest costs and outlays from enacted tax relief and defense increases. This trajectory, reinforced by the administration’s own budget framework showing initial deficits near $2.1 trillion before optimistic growth assumptions take hold, underpins the market’s 96 percent implied probability that no meaningful reduction occurs before 2027. Structural pressures from entitlement spending and debt-service dynamics limit near-term reversal, though tail risks such as unexpectedly robust tariff revenues or congressional approval of deeper discretionary cuts could still alter the fiscal path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Recent Congressional Budget Office baselines project a $1.9 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026, up from $1.8 trillion the prior year and holding near 5.8 percent of GDP amid rising net interest costs and outlays from enacted tax relief and defense increases. This trajectory, reinforced by the administration’s own budget framework showing initial deficits near $2.1 trillion before optimistic growth assumptions take hold, underpins the market’s 96 percent implied probability that no meaningful reduction occurs before 2027. Structural pressures from entitlement spending and debt-service dynamics limit near-term reversal, though tail risks such as unexpectedly robust tariff revenues or congressional approval of deeper discretionary cuts could still alter the fiscal path.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volumen
$1,419Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Recent Congressional Budget Office baselines project a $1.9 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026, up from $1.8 trillion the prior year and holding near 5.8 percent of GDP amid rising net interest costs and outlays from enacted tax relief and defense increases. This trajectory, reinforced by the administration’s own budget framework showing initial deficits near $2.1 trillion before optimistic growth assumptions take hold, underpins the market’s 96 percent implied probability that no meaningful reduction occurs before 2027. Structural pressures from entitlement spending and debt-service dynamics limit near-term reversal, though tail risks such as unexpectedly robust tariff revenues or congressional approval of deeper discretionary cuts could still alter the fiscal path.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volumen
$1,419Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Congressional Budget Office baselines project a $1.9 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026, up from $1.8 trillion the prior year and holding near 5.8 percent of GDP amid rising net interest costs and outlays from enacted tax relief and defense increases. This trajectory, reinforced by the administration’s own budget framework showing initial deficits near $2.1 trillion before optimistic growth assumptions take hold, underpins the market’s 96 percent implied probability that no meaningful reduction occurs before 2027. Structural pressures from entitlement spending and debt-service dynamics limit near-term reversal, though tail risks such as unexpectedly robust tariff revenues or congressional approval of deeper discretionary cuts could still alter the fiscal path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes