Ukraine's ongoing long-range drone and missile campaign has continued to target Russian air defenses, naval facilities, and radar installations across occupied Crimea, with the most recent confirmed strikes hitting a Pantsir-S1 system near Khutorok on May 14-15. These operations have degraded Russian logistics and force projection but produced no measurable territorial advances on the ground. Russian forces maintain extensive fortifications, Black Sea Fleet remnants, and supply routes that have proven resilient despite incremental Ukrainian pressure. Absent a major shift in Western weapons deliveries, battlefield momentum elsewhere in Donbas, or direct diplomatic intervention, the structural barriers to a full Ukrainian recapture by June 30, 2026, remain formidable. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for "No" reflects this entrenched military reality, though rapid escalation or negotiated territorial concessions could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea para el 30 de junio de 2026?
¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea para el 30 de junio de 2026?
Sí
$657,865 Vol.
$657,865 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$657,865 Vol.
$657,865 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukraine's ongoing long-range drone and missile campaign has continued to target Russian air defenses, naval facilities, and radar installations across occupied Crimea, with the most recent confirmed strikes hitting a Pantsir-S1 system near Khutorok on May 14-15. These operations have degraded Russian logistics and force projection but produced no measurable territorial advances on the ground. Russian forces maintain extensive fortifications, Black Sea Fleet remnants, and supply routes that have proven resilient despite incremental Ukrainian pressure. Absent a major shift in Western weapons deliveries, battlefield momentum elsewhere in Donbas, or direct diplomatic intervention, the structural barriers to a full Ukrainian recapture by June 30, 2026, remain formidable. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for "No" reflects this entrenched military reality, though rapid escalation or negotiated territorial concessions could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volumen
$657,865Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukraine's ongoing long-range drone and missile campaign has continued to target Russian air defenses, naval facilities, and radar installations across occupied Crimea, with the most recent confirmed strikes hitting a Pantsir-S1 system near Khutorok on May 14-15. These operations have degraded Russian logistics and force projection but produced no measurable territorial advances on the ground. Russian forces maintain extensive fortifications, Black Sea Fleet remnants, and supply routes that have proven resilient despite incremental Ukrainian pressure. Absent a major shift in Western weapons deliveries, battlefield momentum elsewhere in Donbas, or direct diplomatic intervention, the structural barriers to a full Ukrainian recapture by June 30, 2026, remain formidable. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for "No" reflects this entrenched military reality, though rapid escalation or negotiated territorial concessions could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volumen
$657,865Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine's ongoing long-range drone and missile campaign has continued to target Russian air defenses, naval facilities, and radar installations across occupied Crimea, with the most recent confirmed strikes hitting a Pantsir-S1 system near Khutorok on May 14-15. These operations have degraded Russian logistics and force projection but produced no measurable territorial advances on the ground. Russian forces maintain extensive fortifications, Black Sea Fleet remnants, and supply routes that have proven resilient despite incremental Ukrainian pressure. Absent a major shift in Western weapons deliveries, battlefield momentum elsewhere in Donbas, or direct diplomatic intervention, the structural barriers to a full Ukrainian recapture by June 30, 2026, remain formidable. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for "No" reflects this entrenched military reality, though rapid escalation or negotiated territorial concessions could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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