Recent multiple incidents have driven the 82.5% implied probability for another Codex outage before year-end. OpenAI’s coding agent experienced a major 56-minute outage on September 25 affecting web, API, CLI, and VS Code components, followed by elevated errors on September 29 and degraded performance with dot-turn failures on October 7. These recurring stability issues, tied to authentication paths, rate-limit resets, and internal scaling challenges in the large language model infrastructure, reflect persistent reliability pressures amid high developer adoption. Traders view the pattern of short but frequent disruptions as evidence that further incidents remain likely before December 31.