Recent weak July 2026 employment data, with nonfarm payrolls declining 23,000 against consensus expectations of an 80,000 gain and prior months revised lower by over 100,000, has created substantial uncertainty around the August unemployment rate. This surprise contraction, alongside the unemployment rate slipping to 4.1% partly due to a drop in labor force participation, has left market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 4.1% and 4.2%. Traders are weighing whether the July softness signals broader labor market cooling or a temporary dip amid seasonal factors and economic headwinds. The closely matched odds reflect the limited data available since the July report, with the August figure—due in early September—serving as the key catalyst that could shift the distribution depending on payroll trends and participation rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.1% 35%
4.2% 32%
4.3% 20%
4.0% 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
4%
3.9%
3%
4.0%
10%
4.1%
35%
4.2%
35%
4.3%
16%
4.4%
7%
4.5%
1%
≥4.6%
5%
4.1% 35%
4.2% 32%
4.3% 20%
4.0% 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
$134 Vol.
4%
3.9%
$136 Vol.
3%
4.0%
$986 Vol.
10%
4.1%
$3,738 Vol.
35%
4.2%
$2,190 Vol.
35%
4.3%
$1,897 Vol.
16%
4.4%
$370 Vol.
7%
4.5%
$156 Vol.
1%
≥4.6%
$170 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent weak July 2026 employment data, with nonfarm payrolls declining 23,000 against consensus expectations of an 80,000 gain and prior months revised lower by over 100,000, has created substantial uncertainty around the August unemployment rate. This surprise contraction, alongside the unemployment rate slipping to 4.1% partly due to a drop in labor force participation, has left market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 4.1% and 4.2%. Traders are weighing whether the July softness signals broader labor market cooling or a temporary dip amid seasonal factors and economic headwinds. The closely matched odds reflect the limited data available since the July report, with the August figure—due in early September—serving as the key catalyst that could shift the distribution depending on payroll trends and participation rates.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Volume
$9,778End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent weak July 2026 employment data, with nonfarm payrolls declining 23,000 against consensus expectations of an 80,000 gain and prior months revised lower by over 100,000, has created substantial uncertainty around the August unemployment rate. This surprise contraction, alongside the unemployment rate slipping to 4.1% partly due to a drop in labor force participation, has left market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 4.1% and 4.2%. Traders are weighing whether the July softness signals broader labor market cooling or a temporary dip amid seasonal factors and economic headwinds. The closely matched odds reflect the limited data available since the July report, with the August figure—due in early September—serving as the key catalyst that could shift the distribution depending on payroll trends and participation rates.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$9,778End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weak July 2026 employment data, with nonfarm payrolls declining 23,000 against consensus expectations of an 80,000 gain and prior months revised lower by over 100,000, has created substantial uncertainty around the August unemployment rate. This surprise contraction, alongside the unemployment rate slipping to 4.1% partly due to a drop in labor force participation, has left market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 4.1% and 4.2%. Traders are weighing whether the July softness signals broader labor market cooling or a temporary dip amid seasonal factors and economic headwinds. The closely matched odds reflect the limited data available since the July report, with the August figure—due in early September—serving as the key catalyst that could shift the distribution depending on payroll trends and participation rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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