Recent Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including seizures near Perim Island and Mokha in September 2026, combined with targeted threats against Saudi-linked vessels, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25 daily on average amid selective rerouting. This dynamic supports the closely matched market-implied odds between the 35+ and 25-29 buckets, as non-Saudi container carriers weigh the 11-day transit savings versus Cape of Good Hope against persistent security risks and dark-AIS activity. Tanker volumes, particularly VLCCs, remain more constrained due to elevated insurance and attack exposure, while broader Hormuz disruptions have partially offset declines by channeling some alternative flows. Upcoming catalysts include any escalation in missile activity, Saudi pipeline loadings at Yanbu, or de-escalation signals that could shift carrier routing decisions before month-end.