Ongoing Houthi threats, including the August 24 strike on the Saudi-linked tanker Amzan, continue to suppress compliant tanker traffic through Bab el-Mandeb while major container lines incrementally restore Suez routings. Recent data show weekly AIS-tracked transits stabilizing near 223–269 vessels, or roughly 32–38 per day, well below the pre-crisis 65–72 daily average but above 2024–2025 lows as box volumes recover modestly. Elevated war-risk premiums, case-by-case insurance for Saudi tonnage, and a rising share of dark or sanctioned movements create persistent downside pressure on mainstream flows, supporting tight market-implied odds clustered in the 25–34 range. Container rebound versus tanker restraint, alongside any escalation in selective interdiction or further carrier commitments, represent the key swing factors for end-September resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
30-34 26.0%
25-29 26%
<25 19.5%
35-39 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<25
20%
25-29
26%
30-34
26%
35-39
18%
40+
12%
30-34 26.0%
25-29 26%
<25 19.5%
35-39 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<25
$338 Vol.
20%
25-29
$1,081 Vol.
26%
30-34
$461 Vol.
26%
35-39
$324 Vol.
18%
40+
$164 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi threats, including the August 24 strike on the Saudi-linked tanker Amzan, continue to suppress compliant tanker traffic through Bab el-Mandeb while major container lines incrementally restore Suez routings. Recent data show weekly AIS-tracked transits stabilizing near 223–269 vessels, or roughly 32–38 per day, well below the pre-crisis 65–72 daily average but above 2024–2025 lows as box volumes recover modestly. Elevated war-risk premiums, case-by-case insurance for Saudi tonnage, and a rising share of dark or sanctioned movements create persistent downside pressure on mainstream flows, supporting tight market-implied odds clustered in the 25–34 range. Container rebound versus tanker restraint, alongside any escalation in selective interdiction or further carrier commitments, represent the key swing factors for end-September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$2,368End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi threats, including the August 24 strike on the Saudi-linked tanker Amzan, continue to suppress compliant tanker traffic through Bab el-Mandeb while major container lines incrementally restore Suez routings. Recent data show weekly AIS-tracked transits stabilizing near 223–269 vessels, or roughly 32–38 per day, well below the pre-crisis 65–72 daily average but above 2024–2025 lows as box volumes recover modestly. Elevated war-risk premiums, case-by-case insurance for Saudi tonnage, and a rising share of dark or sanctioned movements create persistent downside pressure on mainstream flows, supporting tight market-implied odds clustered in the 25–34 range. Container rebound versus tanker restraint, alongside any escalation in selective interdiction or further carrier commitments, represent the key swing factors for end-September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$2,368End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Houthi threats, including the August 24 strike on the Saudi-linked tanker Amzan, continue to suppress compliant tanker traffic through Bab el-Mandeb while major container lines incrementally restore Suez routings. Recent data show weekly AIS-tracked transits stabilizing near 223–269 vessels, or roughly 32–38 per day, well below the pre-crisis 65–72 daily average but above 2024–2025 lows as box volumes recover modestly. Elevated war-risk premiums, case-by-case insurance for Saudi tonnage, and a rising share of dark or sanctioned movements create persistent downside pressure on mainstream flows, supporting tight market-implied odds clustered in the 25–34 range. Container rebound versus tanker restraint, alongside any escalation in selective interdiction or further carrier commitments, represent the key swing factors for end-September resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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