Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the Bahri VLCC Amzan, combined with the ongoing blockade declared in July, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 223–269 vessels per week in August despite modest Suez Canal recovery. Major carriers have conditionally resumed some Asia-Europe services via the strait but continue routing significant volumes around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and prompting widespread AIS-dark operations that reduce reported counts. These dynamics anchor trader consensus around 170–209 weekly transits as the most probable range, balancing partial normalization in container flows against tanker avoidance and enforcement risks that could push volumes lower or sustain them if dark traffic rises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
190-209 43%
170-189 33%
230+ 16%
210-229 8%
NEW
$24,342 Vol.
NEW
$24,342 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
2%
170-189
33%
190-209
43%
210-229
8%
230+
16%
190-209 43%
170-189 33%
230+ 16%
210-229 8%
NEW
$24,342 Vol.
NEW
$24,342 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
$116 Vol.
2%
170-189
$116 Vol.
33%
190-209
$2,069 Vol.
43%
210-229
$8,983 Vol.
8%
230+
$13,058 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the Bahri VLCC Amzan, combined with the ongoing blockade declared in July, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 223–269 vessels per week in August despite modest Suez Canal recovery. Major carriers have conditionally resumed some Asia-Europe services via the strait but continue routing significant volumes around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and prompting widespread AIS-dark operations that reduce reported counts. These dynamics anchor trader consensus around 170–209 weekly transits as the most probable range, balancing partial normalization in container flows against tanker avoidance and enforcement risks that could push volumes lower or sustain them if dark traffic rises.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$24,342End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the Bahri VLCC Amzan, combined with the ongoing blockade declared in July, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 223–269 vessels per week in August despite modest Suez Canal recovery. Major carriers have conditionally resumed some Asia-Europe services via the strait but continue routing significant volumes around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and prompting widespread AIS-dark operations that reduce reported counts. These dynamics anchor trader consensus around 170–209 weekly transits as the most probable range, balancing partial normalization in container flows against tanker avoidance and enforcement risks that could push volumes lower or sustain them if dark traffic rises.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$24,342End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the Bahri VLCC Amzan, combined with the ongoing blockade declared in July, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 223–269 vessels per week in August despite modest Suez Canal recovery. Major carriers have conditionally resumed some Asia-Europe services via the strait but continue routing significant volumes around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and prompting widespread AIS-dark operations that reduce reported counts. These dynamics anchor trader consensus around 170–209 weekly transits as the most probable range, balancing partial normalization in container flows against tanker avoidance and enforcement risks that could push volumes lower or sustain them if dark traffic rises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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