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icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politics·House Of Representatives

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politics·House Of Representatives

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 100.0%

Melissa Hernandez <1%

Wendy Huang <1%

Carin Elam <1%

Polymarket

$167,335 Vol.

Aisha Wahab 100.0%

Melissa Hernandez <1%

Wendy Huang <1%

Carin Elam <1%

Polymarket

$167,335 Vol.

Aisha Wahab

$112,000 Vol.

Yes

Melissa Hernandez

$37,655 Vol.

No

Wendy Huang

$1,336 Vol.

No

Carin Elam

$4,951 Vol.

No

Matt Ortega

$4,031 Vol.

No

Rakhi Israni Singh

$3,225 Vol.

No

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$4,138 Vol.

No

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab secured the Democratic nomination and advanced through the June 2026 primary before defeating fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez in the August 18 runoff for California's 14th congressional district. Trader consensus at 100% reflects the completed vote count and projections from major outlets confirming her narrow victory, which will fill the remainder of the term vacated by Eric Swalwell. The district's heavily Democratic electorate and party endorsement consolidated support behind the state senator. Certification of results or any late procedural challenges represent the primary remaining variables that could affect final market resolution.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$167,335
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab secured the Democratic nomination and advanced through the June 2026 primary before defeating fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez in the August 18 runoff for California's 14th congressional district. Trader consensus at 100% reflects the completed vote count and projections from major outlets confirming her narrow victory, which will fill the remainder of the term vacated by Eric Swalwell. The district's heavily Democratic electorate and party endorsement consolidated support behind the state senator. Certification of results or any late procedural challenges represent the primary remaining variables that could affect final market resolution.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$167,335
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aisha Wahab" at 100%, followed by "Melissa Hernandez" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" has generated $167.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-14 Special Election Winner?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" is "Aisha Wahab" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Melissa Hernandez" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.