Recent three-day windows show Elon Musk averaging roughly 20–25 posts daily on X, landing squarely in the 40-64 bracket that has resolved multiple times in September. The leading 54.5% implied probability for that range reflects traders’ reading of his established cadence absent major disruptions. The October 1 Tesla Roadster reveal stands as the clearest near-term catalyst and could generate additional commentary or engagement, yet markets assign only modest upside to the 65-89 and higher brackets. Broader October activity remains fluid due to unscripted company news and platform dynamics, keeping longer-tail outcomes below 2% each.