The Late Show with Stephen Colbert leads the market at 78.5% implied probability due to its final-season momentum and record nine Emmy nominations, the largest haul in the host’s tenure. Industry predictors from Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Gold Derby consistently rank it first in the merged Outstanding Variety Series category, citing strong critical reception, consistent topical relevance, and a robust CBS for-your-consideration campaign featuring clips from rival hosts. Recent developments, including the July 2026 nominations announcement and ongoing final voting, have solidified trader consensus around Colbert’s swan-song bid. Last Week Tonight, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, The Daily Show, and Saturday Night Live trail as long shots, with limited recent momentum shifts or precursor wins to challenge the frontrunner before the September ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 81%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” 6.6%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” 5.5%
“The Daily Show” 2.4%
$65,937 Vol.
$65,937 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
81%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
7%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
5%
“The Daily Show”
2%
“Saturday Night Live”
1%
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 81%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” 6.6%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” 5.5%
“The Daily Show” 2.4%
$65,937 Vol.
$65,937 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
$20,965 Vol.
81%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
$11,343 Vol.
7%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
$16,736 Vol.
5%
“The Daily Show”
$8,887 Vol.
2%
“Saturday Night Live”
$8,005 Vol.
1%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show with Stephen Colbert leads the market at 78.5% implied probability due to its final-season momentum and record nine Emmy nominations, the largest haul in the host’s tenure. Industry predictors from Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Gold Derby consistently rank it first in the merged Outstanding Variety Series category, citing strong critical reception, consistent topical relevance, and a robust CBS for-your-consideration campaign featuring clips from rival hosts. Recent developments, including the July 2026 nominations announcement and ongoing final voting, have solidified trader consensus around Colbert’s swan-song bid. Last Week Tonight, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, The Daily Show, and Saturday Night Live trail as long shots, with limited recent momentum shifts or precursor wins to challenge the frontrunner before the September ceremony.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ET
Volume
$65,937End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show with Stephen Colbert leads the market at 78.5% implied probability due to its final-season momentum and record nine Emmy nominations, the largest haul in the host’s tenure. Industry predictors from Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Gold Derby consistently rank it first in the merged Outstanding Variety Series category, citing strong critical reception, consistent topical relevance, and a robust CBS for-your-consideration campaign featuring clips from rival hosts. Recent developments, including the July 2026 nominations announcement and ongoing final voting, have solidified trader consensus around Colbert’s swan-song bid. Last Week Tonight, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, The Daily Show, and Saturday Night Live trail as long shots, with limited recent momentum shifts or precursor wins to challenge the frontrunner before the September ceremony.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$65,937End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Late Show with Stephen Colbert leads the market at 78.5% implied probability due to its final-season momentum and record nine Emmy nominations, the largest haul in the host’s tenure. Industry predictors from Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Gold Derby consistently rank it first in the merged Outstanding Variety Series category, citing strong critical reception, consistent topical relevance, and a robust CBS for-your-consideration campaign featuring clips from rival hosts. Recent developments, including the July 2026 nominations announcement and ongoing final voting, have solidified trader consensus around Colbert’s swan-song bid. Last Week Tonight, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, The Daily Show, and Saturday Night Live trail as long shots, with limited recent momentum shifts or precursor wins to challenge the frontrunner before the September ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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