Monday’s commanding 57.5% market-implied probability stems from ABC World News Tonight’s lead coverage of the deadly 7.4-magnitude Colombia earthquake that struck on August 10, triggering urgent rescue operations and widespread damage reports that typically spike linear and streaming audiences for disaster stories. Severe Midwest storms and international developments, including U.S.-Iran tensions and Gaza-related updates, added incremental lift across Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping those days in a distant tie at 22%. Later-week broadcasts featured narrower-interest items such as a Texas helicopter crash and an eclipse, producing softer engagement that aligns with their progressively lower odds. With the week’s Nielsen data still settling, traders are monitoring any late streaming or multiplatform spikes that could shift the final ranking before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMost Viewed Day of ABC World News Tonight This Week (Aug 10-16)
Monday 55%
Thursday 15%
Tuesday 8%
Wednesday 4%
Monday
59%
Tuesday
22%
Wednesday
22%
Thursday
15%
Friday
12%
Saturday
8%
Sunday
1%
Monday 55%
Thursday 15%
Tuesday 8%
Wednesday 4%
Monday
59%
Tuesday
22%
Wednesday
22%
Thursday
15%
Friday
12%
Saturday
8%
Sunday
1%
This market will resolve according to the day of the week on which the edition of ABC World News Tonight with the highest number of U.S. viewers (Persons 2+ average total viewers, P2+) aired during the Week of August 10 - August 16, as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart.
This market will resolve based on the first official estimate reported by Nielsen. Any later revisions or retractions will have no bearing on resolution.
If Nielsen reports an entry for ABC World News Tonight without specifying the day of the week on which it aired, that entry will be treated as having aired on Monday.
If the specified show does not appear on the final chart for the specified week, this market will resolve to "Monday".
If two or more editions of ABC World News Tonight are reported with the same number of viewers, and that figure is the highest reported for the specified week, this market will resolve to the earliest of those days within the Monday-Sunday week.
If the data for the specified week is entirely unreleased by 11:59 PM ET on the second Thursday following the specified week, this market will resolve to "Monday". If the data for the specified week remains partially published (i.e. excluding certain days of the week) by that time, this market will resolve based on the viewership data available at that point.
This market will resolve according to Nielsen’s P2+ viewership statistic for the specified week, as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart, regardless of any future changes in methodology.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Nielsen, specifically their P2+ viewership statistic as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart (see: https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#television).
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#televisionResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the day of the week on which the edition of ABC World News Tonight with the highest number of U.S. viewers (Persons 2+ average total viewers, P2+) aired during the Week of August 10 - August 16, as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart.
This market will resolve based on the first official estimate reported by Nielsen. Any later revisions or retractions will have no bearing on resolution.
If Nielsen reports an entry for ABC World News Tonight without specifying the day of the week on which it aired, that entry will be treated as having aired on Monday.
If the specified show does not appear on the final chart for the specified week, this market will resolve to "Monday".
If two or more editions of ABC World News Tonight are reported with the same number of viewers, and that figure is the highest reported for the specified week, this market will resolve to the earliest of those days within the Monday-Sunday week.
If the data for the specified week is entirely unreleased by 11:59 PM ET on the second Thursday following the specified week, this market will resolve to "Monday". If the data for the specified week remains partially published (i.e. excluding certain days of the week) by that time, this market will resolve based on the viewership data available at that point.
This market will resolve according to Nielsen’s P2+ viewership statistic for the specified week, as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart, regardless of any future changes in methodology.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Nielsen, specifically their P2+ viewership statistic as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart (see: https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#television).
Resolution Source
https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#televisionResolver
0x69c47De9D...Monday’s commanding 57.5% market-implied probability stems from ABC World News Tonight’s lead coverage of the deadly 7.4-magnitude Colombia earthquake that struck on August 10, triggering urgent rescue operations and widespread damage reports that typically spike linear and streaming audiences for disaster stories. Severe Midwest storms and international developments, including U.S.-Iran tensions and Gaza-related updates, added incremental lift across Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping those days in a distant tie at 22%. Later-week broadcasts featured narrower-interest items such as a Texas helicopter crash and an eclipse, producing softer engagement that aligns with their progressively lower odds. With the week’s Nielsen data still settling, traders are monitoring any late streaming or multiplatform spikes that could shift the final ranking before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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