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icon for Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series

Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series

icon for Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series

Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series

“The Traitors” 86.6%

“Survivor” 4.1%

“RuPaul’s Drag Race” 4.0%

“Dancing with the Stars” 3.2%

Polymarket

$25,882 Vol.

“The Traitors” 86.6%

“Survivor” 4.1%

“RuPaul’s Drag Race” 4.0%

“Dancing with the Stars” 3.2%

Polymarket

$25,882 Vol.

“The Traitors”

$10,249 Vol.

87%

“Survivor”

$8,931 Vol.

4%

“RuPaul’s Drag Race”

$3,522 Vol.

4%

“Dancing with the Stars”

$1,672 Vol.

3%

“Top Chef”

$1,507 Vol.

1%

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding reality/competition series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Traitors enters the 2026 Emmys as the clear frontrunner for Outstanding Reality Competition Program, backed by back-to-back wins in 2024 and 2025, a Critics Choice Real TV Awards sweep this year, and eight total Emmys across three seasons. Its strong recent seasons and hosting momentum with Alan Cumming have solidified trader consensus around the 86.6% implied probability. Survivor’s Season 50 milestone and renewed visibility generate modest support at 4.3%, yet historical patterns show the CBS staple trailing in this category despite long-term acclaim. RuPaul’s Drag Race, Dancing with the Stars’ return after a decade, and Top Chef round out the field with lower odds reflecting weaker recent category momentum. Final voting closes August 26 ahead of the September 14 ceremony.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California

This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding reality/competition series”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$25,882
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:14 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding reality/competition series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding reality/competition series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Traitors enters the 2026 Emmys as the clear frontrunner for Outstanding Reality Competition Program, backed by back-to-back wins in 2024 and 2025, a Critics Choice Real TV Awards sweep this year, and eight total Emmys across three seasons. Its strong recent seasons and hosting momentum with Alan Cumming have solidified trader consensus around the 86.6% implied probability. Survivor’s Season 50 milestone and renewed visibility generate modest support at 4.3%, yet historical patterns show the CBS staple trailing in this category despite long-term acclaim. RuPaul’s Drag Race, Dancing with the Stars’ return after a decade, and Top Chef round out the field with lower odds reflecting weaker recent category momentum. Final voting closes August 26 ahead of the September 14 ceremony.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California

This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding reality/competition series”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$25,882
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:14 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding reality/competition series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "“The Traitors”" at 87%, followed by "“Survivor”" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series" has generated $25.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 10, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series" is "“The Traitors”" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "“Survivor”" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.