The Pitt’s commanding 91.5% implied probability stems from its status as defending champion, a dominant sophomore season that delivered a record 25 Emmy nominations, and consistent industry momentum across guild and critics’ circles. The HBO Max medical drama’s strong critical reception, broad acting support, and repeat frontrunner narrative have consolidated trader consensus ahead of final-round voting. With the September 14 ceremony approaching, realistic upset paths remain narrow but include vote fragmentation among multiple Pitt performers, a late surge by Apple TV’s Pluribus if its writing or directing categories resonate strongly with voters, or historical precedent for sophomore fatigue in drama series races.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding drama series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series
“The Pitt” 92%
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” 4.0%
“Slow Horses” 3.0%
“Your Friends & Neighbors” 1.8%
$23,374 Vol.
$23,374 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Pitt”
92%
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms”
4%
“Slow Horses”
3%
“Your Friends & Neighbors”
2%
"The Diplomat"
2%
“The Gilded Age”
1%
“Paradise”
1%
“The Pitt” 92%
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” 4.0%
“Slow Horses” 3.0%
“Your Friends & Neighbors” 1.8%
$23,374 Vol.
$23,374 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Pitt”
$17,030 Vol.
92%
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms”
$662 Vol.
4%
“Slow Horses”
$2,136 Vol.
3%
“Your Friends & Neighbors”
$1,007 Vol.
2%
"The Diplomat"
$856 Vol.
2%
“The Gilded Age”
$831 Vol.
1%
“Paradise”
$851 Vol.
1%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Pitt’s commanding 91.5% implied probability stems from its status as defending champion, a dominant sophomore season that delivered a record 25 Emmy nominations, and consistent industry momentum across guild and critics’ circles. The HBO Max medical drama’s strong critical reception, broad acting support, and repeat frontrunner narrative have consolidated trader consensus ahead of final-round voting. With the September 14 ceremony approaching, realistic upset paths remain narrow but include vote fragmentation among multiple Pitt performers, a late surge by Apple TV’s Pluribus if its writing or directing categories resonate strongly with voters, or historical precedent for sophomore fatigue in drama series races.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volume
$23,374End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Pitt’s commanding 91.5% implied probability stems from its status as defending champion, a dominant sophomore season that delivered a record 25 Emmy nominations, and consistent industry momentum across guild and critics’ circles. The HBO Max medical drama’s strong critical reception, broad acting support, and repeat frontrunner narrative have consolidated trader consensus ahead of final-round voting. With the September 14 ceremony approaching, realistic upset paths remain narrow but include vote fragmentation among multiple Pitt performers, a late surge by Apple TV’s Pluribus if its writing or directing categories resonate strongly with voters, or historical precedent for sophomore fatigue in drama series races.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$23,374End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pitt’s commanding 91.5% implied probability stems from its status as defending champion, a dominant sophomore season that delivered a record 25 Emmy nominations, and consistent industry momentum across guild and critics’ circles. The HBO Max medical drama’s strong critical reception, broad acting support, and repeat frontrunner narrative have consolidated trader consensus ahead of final-round voting. With the September 14 ceremony approaching, realistic upset paths remain narrow but include vote fragmentation among multiple Pitt performers, a late surge by Apple TV’s Pluribus if its writing or directing categories resonate strongly with voters, or historical precedent for sophomore fatigue in drama series races.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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