David Harbour’s dominant 98% market position stems from his standout turn as Floyd Smernitch in the critically praised HBO dark comedy “DTF St. Louis,” which premiered in March 2026 and earned 13 Emmy nominations overall. The series’ strong reviews, multiple Creative Arts wins including directing and writing, and Harbour’s first-time frontrunner status among voters drove overwhelming trader consensus ahead of final balloting. Multiple “DTF St. Louis” submissions in the category, including co-stars Jason Bateman and Richard Jenkins, further consolidated support for Harbour while limiting momentum for outsiders like Charles Melton in “Beef” season two or Richard Gadd in “Half Man.” An upset would require an unforeseen vote split among the HBO ensemble or a surprise late surge from a precursor underdog, though recent guild and critics’ signals made that improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie
Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie
David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis” 100.0%
Charles Melton – “Beef” 3.0%
Richard Jenkins – “DTF St. Louis” <1%
Jason Bateman – “DTF St. Louis” <1%
$42,417 Vol.
$42,417 Vol.
Jason Bateman – “DTF St. Louis”
No
Richard Gadd – “Half Man”
No
David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis”
Yes
Richard Jenkins – “DTF St. Louis”
No
Charles Melton – “Beef”
No
Nick Offerman – “Death By Lightning”
No
David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis” 100.0%
Charles Melton – “Beef” 3.0%
Richard Jenkins – “DTF St. Louis” <1%
Jason Bateman – “DTF St. Louis” <1%
$42,417 Vol.
$42,417 Vol.
Jason Bateman – “DTF St. Louis”
No
Richard Gadd – “Half Man”
No
David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis”
Yes
Richard Jenkins – “DTF St. Louis”
No
Charles Melton – “Beef”
No
Nick Offerman – “Death By Lightning”
No
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
David Harbour’s dominant 98% market position stems from his standout turn as Floyd Smernitch in the critically praised HBO dark comedy “DTF St. Louis,” which premiered in March 2026 and earned 13 Emmy nominations overall. The series’ strong reviews, multiple Creative Arts wins including directing and writing, and Harbour’s first-time frontrunner status among voters drove overwhelming trader consensus ahead of final balloting. Multiple “DTF St. Louis” submissions in the category, including co-stars Jason Bateman and Richard Jenkins, further consolidated support for Harbour while limiting momentum for outsiders like Charles Melton in “Beef” season two or Richard Gadd in “Half Man.” An upset would require an unforeseen vote split among the HBO ensemble or a surprise late surge from a precursor underdog, though recent guild and critics’ signals made that improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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