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icon for Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner

icon for Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner

Israel 63%

Moldova 10.7%

Finland 4.0%

Poland 1.9%

Polymarket

$245,462 Vol.

Israel 63%

Moldova 10.7%

Finland 4.0%

Poland 1.9%

Polymarket

$245,462 Vol.

Israel

$17,907 Vol.

68%

Moldova

$31,349 Vol.

11%

Finland

$44,802 Vol.

4%

Poland

$15,427 Vol.

2%

Greece

$24,955 Vol.

1%

Croatia

$24,125 Vol.

1%

Lithuania

$13,949 Vol.

1%

Sweden

$14,527 Vol.

<1%

Belgium

$7,799 Vol.

<1%

Serbia

$11,005 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Israel’s commanding 66% implied probability for winning the first semi-final stems from its high-energy staging and broad televote appeal during the May 12 contest in Vienna. Traders have consolidated around the Israeli entry as the clearest standout among qualifiers, driven by confident choreography and a catchy pop hook that outperformed pre-show expectations. Finland holds second place at 23% thanks to its violin-infused pop-folk blend and consistent fan buzz as an overall favorite, while Moldova’s 15% reflects niche support for its multilingual production. With the grand final approaching on May 17, any final voting surges could still nudge these tightly watched positions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$245,462
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Israel’s commanding 66% implied probability for winning the first semi-final stems from its high-energy staging and broad televote appeal during the May 12 contest in Vienna. Traders have consolidated around the Israeli entry as the clearest standout among qualifiers, driven by confident choreography and a catchy pop hook that outperformed pre-show expectations. Finland holds second place at 23% thanks to its violin-infused pop-folk blend and consistent fan buzz as an overall favorite, while Moldova’s 15% reflects niche support for its multilingual production. With the grand final approaching on May 17, any final voting surges could still nudge these tightly watched positions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$245,462
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Israel" at 68%, followed by "Moldova" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 68¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner" has generated $245.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner" is "Israel" at 68%, meaning the market assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Moldova" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.