Spain's overwhelming 79.5% implied probability as Group H winner reflects trader consensus on their elite squad depth, featuring stars like Rodri, Pedri, Lamine Yamal, and Álvaro Morata, bolstered by Euro 2024 victory and Nations League dominance under Luis de la Fuente's high-tempo style. Uruguay holds 16.5% as the primary challenger, fueled by Marcelo Bielsa's intense pressing, Federico Valverde's midfield mastery, and a fourth-place CONMEBOL qualifying finish with recent friendlies drawing England and Algeria. Saudi Arabia's 3.1% nods to their 2022 Argentina upset potential via set-piece threats and Salem Al-Dawsari's flair, while Cape Verde's 1.0% underscores debutant status as FIFA's 69th-ranked side despite passionate qualifiers. No major injuries reported from ongoing training camps, with top-two advancement and best third-place spots heightening stakes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpain 80%
Uruguay 16%
Saudi Arabia 3.1%
Cape Verde 1.0%
$174,129 Vol.
$174,129 Vol.
Spain
80%
Uruguay
16%
Saudi Arabia
3%
Cape Verde
1%
Spain 80%
Uruguay 16%
Saudi Arabia 3.1%
Cape Verde 1.0%
$174,129 Vol.
$174,129 Vol.
Spain
80%
Uruguay
16%
Saudi Arabia
3%
Cape Verde
1%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 7:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain's overwhelming 79.5% implied probability as Group H winner reflects trader consensus on their elite squad depth, featuring stars like Rodri, Pedri, Lamine Yamal, and Álvaro Morata, bolstered by Euro 2024 victory and Nations League dominance under Luis de la Fuente's high-tempo style. Uruguay holds 16.5% as the primary challenger, fueled by Marcelo Bielsa's intense pressing, Federico Valverde's midfield mastery, and a fourth-place CONMEBOL qualifying finish with recent friendlies drawing England and Algeria. Saudi Arabia's 3.1% nods to their 2022 Argentina upset potential via set-piece threats and Salem Al-Dawsari's flair, while Cape Verde's 1.0% underscores debutant status as FIFA's 69th-ranked side despite passionate qualifiers. No major injuries reported from ongoing training camps, with top-two advancement and best third-place spots heightening stakes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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