Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green holds a commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial contest, reflected in the 98.5% trader consensus on Polymarket. Hawaii has not elected a Republican governor since 2006, and Green secured his party’s nomination with 88.5% in the August primary while raising nearly ten times the funds of Republican businessman Gary Cordery. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing the state’s partisan lean, Green’s incumbency advantages, and early voting patterns favoring Democrats ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or turnout surge could still shift outcomes, though no such factors have emerged in the final days.