Recent advances in reasoning-focused large language models have pushed Humanity’s Last Exam scores into the mid-50s percent range for frontier systems, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leading at 59–65% across variants while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra sits near 54.7% and GPT-5.4 Pro at 58.7%. OpenAI’s continued emphasis on agentic scaffolding, chain-of-thought optimization, and post-training compute scaling remains the central driver of market-implied odds for its highest 2026 result. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI’s historical release cadence, positions potential late-year model updates or fine-tunes as key swing factors before year-end resolution. Traders watch for any confirmed capability jumps on the official Scale or Artificial Analysis leaderboards.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$107,820 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
55%+
78%
60%+
33%
65%+
16%
70%+
10%
$107,820 Vol.
55%+
$34,352 Vol.
78%
60%+
$41,192 Vol.
33%
65%+
$9,431 Vol.
16%
70%+
$5,516 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Recent advances in reasoning-focused large language models have pushed Humanity’s Last Exam scores into the mid-50s percent range for frontier systems, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leading at 59–65% across variants while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra sits near 54.7% and GPT-5.4 Pro at 58.7%. OpenAI’s continued emphasis on agentic scaffolding, chain-of-thought optimization, and post-training compute scaling remains the central driver of market-implied odds for its highest 2026 result. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI’s historical release cadence, positions potential late-year model updates or fine-tunes as key swing factors before year-end resolution. Traders watch for any confirmed capability jumps on the official Scale or Artificial Analysis leaderboards.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$107,820End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Recent advances in reasoning-focused large language models have pushed Humanity’s Last Exam scores into the mid-50s percent range for frontier systems, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leading at 59–65% across variants while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra sits near 54.7% and GPT-5.4 Pro at 58.7%. OpenAI’s continued emphasis on agentic scaffolding, chain-of-thought optimization, and post-training compute scaling remains the central driver of market-implied odds for its highest 2026 result. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI’s historical release cadence, positions potential late-year model updates or fine-tunes as key swing factors before year-end resolution. Traders watch for any confirmed capability jumps on the official Scale or Artificial Analysis leaderboards.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$107,820End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent advances in reasoning-focused large language models have pushed Humanity’s Last Exam scores into the mid-50s percent range for frontier systems, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leading at 59–65% across variants while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra sits near 54.7% and GPT-5.4 Pro at 58.7%. OpenAI’s continued emphasis on agentic scaffolding, chain-of-thought optimization, and post-training compute scaling remains the central driver of market-implied odds for its highest 2026 result. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI’s historical release cadence, positions potential late-year model updates or fine-tunes as key swing factors before year-end resolution. Traders watch for any confirmed capability jumps on the official Scale or Artificial Analysis leaderboards.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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