**OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.4/5.5 Pro variants currently post 54–58% on September 2026 HLE leaderboards (with or without tools), trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 at 59–65%.** Market-implied odds favor OpenAI reaching at least 55% by year-end while assigning lower probability to 60%+ thresholds, reflecting the benchmark’s continued headroom and Anthropic’s recent lead. Traders are watching OpenAI’s release cadence, reasoning enhancements, and tool-augmented setups as the main swing factors, alongside potential competitive responses from other labs. The frontier remains far from saturation, so any major capability jump or delayed rollout could shift resolution odds quickly before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$98,182 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
55%+
76%
60%+
32%
65%+
18%
70%+
10%
$98,182 Vol.
55%+
$33,988 Vol.
76%
60%+
$31,974 Vol.
32%
65%+
$9,384 Vol.
18%
70%+
$5,506 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.4/5.5 Pro variants currently post 54–58% on September 2026 HLE leaderboards (with or without tools), trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 at 59–65%.** Market-implied odds favor OpenAI reaching at least 55% by year-end while assigning lower probability to 60%+ thresholds, reflecting the benchmark’s continued headroom and Anthropic’s recent lead. Traders are watching OpenAI’s release cadence, reasoning enhancements, and tool-augmented setups as the main swing factors, alongside potential competitive responses from other labs. The frontier remains far from saturation, so any major capability jump or delayed rollout could shift resolution odds quickly before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$98,182End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.4/5.5 Pro variants currently post 54–58% on September 2026 HLE leaderboards (with or without tools), trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 at 59–65%.** Market-implied odds favor OpenAI reaching at least 55% by year-end while assigning lower probability to 60%+ thresholds, reflecting the benchmark’s continued headroom and Anthropic’s recent lead. Traders are watching OpenAI’s release cadence, reasoning enhancements, and tool-augmented setups as the main swing factors, alongside potential competitive responses from other labs. The frontier remains far from saturation, so any major capability jump or delayed rollout could shift resolution odds quickly before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$98,182End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.4/5.5 Pro variants currently post 54–58% on September 2026 HLE leaderboards (with or without tools), trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 at 59–65%.** Market-implied odds favor OpenAI reaching at least 55% by year-end while assigning lower probability to 60%+ thresholds, reflecting the benchmark’s continued headroom and Anthropic’s recent lead. Traders are watching OpenAI’s release cadence, reasoning enhancements, and tool-augmented setups as the main swing factors, alongside potential competitive responses from other labs. The frontier remains far from saturation, so any major capability jump or delayed rollout could shift resolution odds quickly before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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