Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 currently lead public HLE leaderboards at 59–65% with tool use and adaptive reasoning, establishing a clear gap over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (54–57%) and prior GPT-5.4/5.5 Pro configurations (52–58%). Rapid progress on the expert-level benchmark since its 2025 launch—driven by stronger chain-of-thought, verification scaffolds, and tool integration—has outpaced earlier projections, with frontier scores climbing into the mid-40s to low-60s range across labs. OpenAI’s competitive positioning depends on further scaling of reasoning depth and tool orchestration in upcoming releases or updates before year-end, though historical patterns show product timelines can shift and Anthropic’s recent cadence has set a high bar for any OpenAI model to claim the year’s highest score.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$107,820 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
55%+
78%
60%+
33%
65%+
16%
70%+
10%
$107,820 Vol.
55%+
$34,352 Vol.
78%
60%+
$41,192 Vol.
33%
65%+
$9,431 Vol.
16%
70%+
$5,516 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 currently lead public HLE leaderboards at 59–65% with tool use and adaptive reasoning, establishing a clear gap over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (54–57%) and prior GPT-5.4/5.5 Pro configurations (52–58%). Rapid progress on the expert-level benchmark since its 2025 launch—driven by stronger chain-of-thought, verification scaffolds, and tool integration—has outpaced earlier projections, with frontier scores climbing into the mid-40s to low-60s range across labs. OpenAI’s competitive positioning depends on further scaling of reasoning depth and tool orchestration in upcoming releases or updates before year-end, though historical patterns show product timelines can shift and Anthropic’s recent cadence has set a high bar for any OpenAI model to claim the year’s highest score.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$107,820End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 currently lead public HLE leaderboards at 59–65% with tool use and adaptive reasoning, establishing a clear gap over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (54–57%) and prior GPT-5.4/5.5 Pro configurations (52–58%). Rapid progress on the expert-level benchmark since its 2025 launch—driven by stronger chain-of-thought, verification scaffolds, and tool integration—has outpaced earlier projections, with frontier scores climbing into the mid-40s to low-60s range across labs. OpenAI’s competitive positioning depends on further scaling of reasoning depth and tool orchestration in upcoming releases or updates before year-end, though historical patterns show product timelines can shift and Anthropic’s recent cadence has set a high bar for any OpenAI model to claim the year’s highest score.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$107,820End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 currently lead public HLE leaderboards at 59–65% with tool use and adaptive reasoning, establishing a clear gap over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (54–57%) and prior GPT-5.4/5.5 Pro configurations (52–58%). Rapid progress on the expert-level benchmark since its 2025 launch—driven by stronger chain-of-thought, verification scaffolds, and tool integration—has outpaced earlier projections, with frontier scores climbing into the mid-40s to low-60s range across labs. OpenAI’s competitive positioning depends on further scaling of reasoning depth and tool orchestration in upcoming releases or updates before year-end, though historical patterns show product timelines can shift and Anthropic’s recent cadence has set a high bar for any OpenAI model to claim the year’s highest score.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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