**Trader consensus on a 28°C high for Chengdu on September 25 reflects official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Station and multi-model guidance (GFS, ECMWF) projecting a daytime peak near that level under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light easterly winds and high humidity.** Recent observations show temperatures climbing to 27–27.7°C by mid-afternoon, consistent with seasonal norms for late September in the Sichuan Basin where diurnal ranges average 6–8°C amid lingering monsoon moisture. Resolution hinges on the official 24-hour maximum reported by the primary station; realistic challenges include localized convective cooling from scattered showers or slight model underestimation of boundary-layer mixing, though current conditions favor the market-implied outcome.