Recent forecasts from global models such as GFS indicate Moscow’s October 9 high will likely reach 16–18°C under southerly flow, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers limiting full solar heating. This setup favors 18°C as the market leader at 37% implied probability, followed closely by 17°C and 19°C, consistent with ensemble guidance showing modest warm-air advection ahead of an approaching front. Historical October 9 records top out near 19°C, providing context for the upper tail priced at 20.5%. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and official Roshydromet updates for any shifts in timing or intensity of precipitation, which could trim the daily maximum by 1–2°C.