Traders assign the highest probability to a daily maximum of 28°C in São Paulo on August 16 because official forecast models and recent observations point to a peak near that threshold under subtropical winter conditions. A high-pressure system has suppressed cloud cover and allowed stronger solar heating after a cooler period that delivered only 22°C on August 15, below the long-term August average of 23–25°C. With low humidity and light winds, daytime warming is expected to reach the upper 20s Celsius, though model spread and any late-afternoon sea-breeze effects keep 27°C and 29°C viable. Updated National Meteorological Institute guidance and real-time station data through the afternoon will determine final resolution among these closely matched outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 16?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 16?
28°C 31%
27°C 25%
29°C 21%
26°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
15%
27°C
25%
28°C
31%
29°C
21%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 31%
27°C 25%
29°C 21%
26°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
22°C or below
$253 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$128 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$401 Vol.
1%
25°C
$709 Vol.
3%
26°C
$761 Vol.
15%
27°C
$3,446 Vol.
25%
28°C
$1,780 Vol.
31%
29°C
$502 Vol.
21%
30°C
$602 Vol.
3%
31°C
$141 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$356 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest probability to a daily maximum of 28°C in São Paulo on August 16 because official forecast models and recent observations point to a peak near that threshold under subtropical winter conditions. A high-pressure system has suppressed cloud cover and allowed stronger solar heating after a cooler period that delivered only 22°C on August 15, below the long-term August average of 23–25°C. With low humidity and light winds, daytime warming is expected to reach the upper 20s Celsius, though model spread and any late-afternoon sea-breeze effects keep 27°C and 29°C viable. Updated National Meteorological Institute guidance and real-time station data through the afternoon will determine final resolution among these closely matched outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Volume
$9,081End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest probability to a daily maximum of 28°C in São Paulo on August 16 because official forecast models and recent observations point to a peak near that threshold under subtropical winter conditions. A high-pressure system has suppressed cloud cover and allowed stronger solar heating after a cooler period that delivered only 22°C on August 15, below the long-term August average of 23–25°C. With low humidity and light winds, daytime warming is expected to reach the upper 20s Celsius, though model spread and any late-afternoon sea-breeze effects keep 27°C and 29°C viable. Updated National Meteorological Institute guidance and real-time station data through the afternoon will determine final resolution among these closely matched outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,081End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest probability to a daily maximum of 28°C in São Paulo on August 16 because official forecast models and recent observations point to a peak near that threshold under subtropical winter conditions. A high-pressure system has suppressed cloud cover and allowed stronger solar heating after a cooler period that delivered only 22°C on August 15, below the long-term August average of 23–25°C. With low humidity and light winds, daytime warming is expected to reach the upper 20s Celsius, though model spread and any late-afternoon sea-breeze effects keep 27°C and 29°C viable. Updated National Meteorological Institute guidance and real-time station data through the afternoon will determine final resolution among these closely matched outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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