Official Central Weather Administration forecasts for Taipei on August 16 project daytime highs of 34–36°C amid partly cloudy skies and afternoon thundershowers, directly underpinning the market's 100% implied probability on a 36°C peak. This aligns with seasonal norms for late-summer heat in the region, where urban heat-island effects and high humidity often push observed maxima toward the upper end of model guidance. Recent heat alerts across northern Taiwan further reinforce trader consensus around this threshold. The outcome could shift only if denser cloud cover or earlier precipitation develops and caps temperatures below expectations, though current observational trends and model runs make such a deviation unlikely before final daily readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on August 16?
Highest temperature in Taipei on August 16?
36°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$63,267 Vol.
$63,267 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$63,267 Vol.
$63,267 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
29°C or below
$374 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,004 Vol.
No
31°C
$2,377 Vol.
No
32°C
$5,750 Vol.
No
33°C
$8,979 Vol.
No
34°C
$10,045 Vol.
No
35°C
$8,862 Vol.
No
36°C
$5,952 Vol.
Yes
37°C
$5,456 Vol.
No
38°C
$6,065 Vol.
No
39°C or higher
$8,404 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Central Weather Administration forecasts for Taipei on August 16 project daytime highs of 34–36°C amid partly cloudy skies and afternoon thundershowers, directly underpinning the market's 100% implied probability on a 36°C peak. This aligns with seasonal norms for late-summer heat in the region, where urban heat-island effects and high humidity often push observed maxima toward the upper end of model guidance. Recent heat alerts across northern Taiwan further reinforce trader consensus around this threshold. The outcome could shift only if denser cloud cover or earlier precipitation develops and caps temperatures below expectations, though current observational trends and model runs make such a deviation unlikely before final daily readings.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$63,267End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Central Weather Administration forecasts for Taipei on August 16 project daytime highs of 34–36°C amid partly cloudy skies and afternoon thundershowers, directly underpinning the market's 100% implied probability on a 36°C peak. This aligns with seasonal norms for late-summer heat in the region, where urban heat-island effects and high humidity often push observed maxima toward the upper end of model guidance. Recent heat alerts across northern Taiwan further reinforce trader consensus around this threshold. The outcome could shift only if denser cloud cover or earlier precipitation develops and caps temperatures below expectations, though current observational trends and model runs make such a deviation unlikely before final daily readings.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$63,267End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official Central Weather Administration forecasts for Taipei on August 16 project daytime highs of 34–36°C amid partly cloudy skies and afternoon thundershowers, directly underpinning the market's 100% implied probability on a 36°C peak. This aligns with seasonal norms for late-summer heat in the region, where urban heat-island effects and high humidity often push observed maxima toward the upper end of model guidance. Recent heat alerts across northern Taiwan further reinforce trader consensus around this threshold. The outcome could shift only if denser cloud cover or earlier precipitation develops and caps temperatures below expectations, though current observational trends and model runs make such a deviation unlikely before final daily readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions