Strong southerly winds advecting polar maritime air across New Zealand have kept Wellington's daytime maximum locked near 10°C on August 16, well below the seasonal average of about 12°C. Persistent cloud cover and showers have further suppressed solar heating, aligning real-time observations and MetService-NIWA model consensus with this precise threshold. The market's 100% implied probability for exactly 10°C reflects this stable forecast signal backed by official agency guidance. A late shift to northerly flow or unexpected clearing that permits brief insolation could nudge the peak marginally higher, though current atmospheric conditions and model runs show limited potential for such deviation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
10°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$68,291 Vol.
$68,291 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C or higher
No
10°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$68,291 Vol.
$68,291 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
$763 Vol.
No
5°C
$907 Vol.
No
6°C
$1,049 Vol.
No
7°C
$3,612 Vol.
No
8°C
$5,808 Vol.
No
9°C
$27,145 Vol.
No
10°C
$14,391 Vol.
Yes
11°C
$9,218 Vol.
No
12°C
$3,812 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,300 Vol.
No
14°C or higher
$287 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong southerly winds advecting polar maritime air across New Zealand have kept Wellington's daytime maximum locked near 10°C on August 16, well below the seasonal average of about 12°C. Persistent cloud cover and showers have further suppressed solar heating, aligning real-time observations and MetService-NIWA model consensus with this precise threshold. The market's 100% implied probability for exactly 10°C reflects this stable forecast signal backed by official agency guidance. A late shift to northerly flow or unexpected clearing that permits brief insolation could nudge the peak marginally higher, though current atmospheric conditions and model runs show limited potential for such deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$68,291End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong southerly winds advecting polar maritime air across New Zealand have kept Wellington's daytime maximum locked near 10°C on August 16, well below the seasonal average of about 12°C. Persistent cloud cover and showers have further suppressed solar heating, aligning real-time observations and MetService-NIWA model consensus with this precise threshold. The market's 100% implied probability for exactly 10°C reflects this stable forecast signal backed by official agency guidance. A late shift to northerly flow or unexpected clearing that permits brief insolation could nudge the peak marginally higher, though current atmospheric conditions and model runs show limited potential for such deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$68,291End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Strong southerly winds advecting polar maritime air across New Zealand have kept Wellington's daytime maximum locked near 10°C on August 16, well below the seasonal average of about 12°C. Persistent cloud cover and showers have further suppressed solar heating, aligning real-time observations and MetService-NIWA model consensus with this precise threshold. The market's 100% implied probability for exactly 10°C reflects this stable forecast signal backed by official agency guidance. A late shift to northerly flow or unexpected clearing that permits brief insolation could nudge the peak marginally higher, though current atmospheric conditions and model runs show limited potential for such deviation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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