Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha and Perim Island in early September, coupled with targeted strikes on Saudi-linked tankers, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed at roughly 25–27 vessels per day through late September, translating to a weekly run rate of approximately 175–190 ships. This places the 170–189 and 190–209 buckets in near parity at 26% and 25% implied probability, respectively, as traders price the balance between selective container-line resumption and persistent risk aversion, especially among tankers. Renewed Houthi assurances excluding non-Saudi vessels have supported modest stabilization, yet visible AIS data and satellite tracking continue to show volumes well below pre-2023 norms, with dark transits complicating counts. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over whether security conditions hold through the first full week of October or whether further coastal advances or incidents push counts toward the <170 bucket (24.5%). Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in Yemen ground fighting or shifts in carrier routing decisions ahead of the resolution window.