**Ongoing Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and renewed strikes have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed but stable, supporting the market’s strong 62% weighting on 190–209 ships for the week of September 21.** Daily commodity and container flows have settled in the low-to-mid 20s to low 30s range amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and selective AIS-dark transits, consistent with Kpler and other tracking data showing roughly 22–27 vessels per day in late September. This level reflects partial rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope for higher-risk tonnage while some carriers cautiously restore limited Suez/Red Sea services, tempered by the East–West pipeline restart and persistent Houthi blockade threats targeting Saudi-linked shipping. The 170–189 bin at 25.5% captures downside risk from further escalation or dark-traffic undercounting, whereas the low odds on 230+ underscore the structural reduction from pre-2023 baselines. Upcoming resolution will hinge on any last reported weekly aggregates and adjustments for non-AIS activity.