**Trader consensus on Bab el-Mandeb transits for the week of September 21 remains tightly balanced, with 190-209 ships at 48.0% implied probability edging out sub-170 at 47.5%.** Recent IMF PortWatch and Kpler data show daily commodity and tanker crossings fluctuating between 22 and 26 vessels amid Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and nearby islands that have elevated attack risks and prompted selective rerouting. War-risk premiums have risen to 1–3% of hull value for exposed calls, while non-Saudi tankers and limited container services continue to support baseline volumes near 20–25 per day. Key swing factors include any further Houthi strikes on Saudi-linked infrastructure, carrier service restorations via Suez, and forthcoming weekly aggregates that could shift pricing if traffic stabilizes above or drops below recent averages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 21?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 21?
170-189 43%
<170 42%
190-209 26%
230+ 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
<170
42%
170-189
43%
190-209
48%
210-229
13%
230+
14%
170-189 43%
<170 42%
190-209 26%
230+ 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
<170
$20 Vol.
42%
170-189
$381 Vol.
43%
190-209
$40 Vol.
48%
210-229
$0 Vol.
13%
230+
$25 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader consensus on Bab el-Mandeb transits for the week of September 21 remains tightly balanced, with 190-209 ships at 48.0% implied probability edging out sub-170 at 47.5%.** Recent IMF PortWatch and Kpler data show daily commodity and tanker crossings fluctuating between 22 and 26 vessels amid Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and nearby islands that have elevated attack risks and prompted selective rerouting. War-risk premiums have risen to 1–3% of hull value for exposed calls, while non-Saudi tankers and limited container services continue to support baseline volumes near 20–25 per day. Key swing factors include any further Houthi strikes on Saudi-linked infrastructure, carrier service restorations via Suez, and forthcoming weekly aggregates that could shift pricing if traffic stabilizes above or drops below recent averages.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$467End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader consensus on Bab el-Mandeb transits for the week of September 21 remains tightly balanced, with 190-209 ships at 48.0% implied probability edging out sub-170 at 47.5%.** Recent IMF PortWatch and Kpler data show daily commodity and tanker crossings fluctuating between 22 and 26 vessels amid Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and nearby islands that have elevated attack risks and prompted selective rerouting. War-risk premiums have risen to 1–3% of hull value for exposed calls, while non-Saudi tankers and limited container services continue to support baseline volumes near 20–25 per day. Key swing factors include any further Houthi strikes on Saudi-linked infrastructure, carrier service restorations via Suez, and forthcoming weekly aggregates that could shift pricing if traffic stabilizes above or drops below recent averages.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$467End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Bab el-Mandeb transits for the week of September 21 remains tightly balanced, with 190-209 ships at 48.0% implied probability edging out sub-170 at 47.5%.** Recent IMF PortWatch and Kpler data show daily commodity and tanker crossings fluctuating between 22 and 26 vessels amid Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and nearby islands that have elevated attack risks and prompted selective rerouting. War-risk premiums have risen to 1–3% of hull value for exposed calls, while non-Saudi tankers and limited container services continue to support baseline volumes near 20–25 per day. Key swing factors include any further Houthi strikes on Saudi-linked infrastructure, carrier service restorations via Suez, and forthcoming weekly aggregates that could shift pricing if traffic stabilizes above or drops below recent averages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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